Global| Dec 24 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Edge Lower
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 267,000 (-4.6% y/y) in the week ending December 19, down from 272,000 the week before, which was revised from 271,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 filings. The [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 267,000 (-4.6% y/y) in the week ending December 19, down from 272,000 the week before, which was revised from 271,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 filings. The four-week moving average rose modestly to 272,500, and remained near its 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending December 12, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 2.195 million (-7.7% y/y), with marginal upward revisions to the two prior weeks. The four-week moving average edged higher to 2.211 million, and remained just above its 15-year low, 2.000 during May 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment eased to 1.6% from 1.7%, remaining near its cycle low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. South Dakota remained the lowest at 0.60%, with Florida at 0.63%, Nebraska at 0.69%, North Carolina at 0.72%, and Virginia at 0.79%. At the high end of the range, Alaska had 4.23%, Puerto Rico 2.97%, West Virginia 2.76%, Pennsylvania 2.64% and New Jersey 2.63%. The state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag versus the headline national figure for initial claims.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/19/15 | 12/12/15 | 12/05/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 267 | 272 | 282 | -4.6 | 306 | 341 | 373 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,195 | 2,242 | -7.7 | 2,606 | 2,980 | 3,312 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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