Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Sandy Batten

260114J8.jpg

260114K8.jpg

Existing home sales jumped 5.1% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in December to 4.35 million units (SAAR). This was the fourth consecutive monthly gain and was well above the 1.7% m/m increase expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. December sales were the highest since February 2023. For all of 2025, sales remained anemic, totaling just 4.084 million and only up slightly from 4.067 million in 2024, which was the lowest annual total in the history of the series dating back to 1999. The average effective 30-year mortgage interest rate fell to 6.51% in December from 6.54% in November. This is down markedly from 7.10% in May and accounts for some of the revival in home sales over the past several months. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales rose 5.1% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in December to 3.95 million. This was the fourth consecutive monthly increase and highest level of single-family sales since February 2023. Sales of condos and co-ops surged 5.3% m/m (-2.4% y/y) in December to 400,000, more than reversing a 2.6% monthly drop in November. For all of 2025, sales of single-family homes edged up to 3.706 million from 3.673 million in 2024. By contrast, sales of condos and co-ops declined to 378,333 from 393,333 in 2024.

Compared to a month ago, sales rose 2.0% m/m in the Northeast, increased 2.0% m/m in the Midwest, jumped 6.9% m/m in the South (the largest monthly gain since February 2024), and surged 6.6% m/m in the West (the largest monthly gains since February). Year-over-year comparisons were less flattering. Compared to a year ago, sales were unchanged in both the Midwest and the West and fell 1.9% y/y in the Northeast. By contrast, sales rose 3.6% y/y in the South.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) declined 1.1% m/m (+0.4% y/y) to $405,400 in December. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.3% m/m (+0.2% y/y) to $409,500 in December. Prices of single-family homes in the Northeast were essentially unchanged in December from November. However, prices in the other three regions fell: -3.6% m/m in the Midwest, -0.3% m/m in the South, -1.9% m/m in the West.

Inventories of homes for sale continued to weaken in December. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) plummeted 18.1% m/m (+3.5% y/y) to 1.18 million units, the lowest level since January. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) fell to 3.3 months, its lowest reading since last December.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260114L8.jpg

260114M8.jpg

- Existing home sales jumped a much larger-than-expected 5.1% m/m in December, the fourth consecutive monthly gain.
- Month-over-month sales increased in each of the four major areas.
- But year-over-year sales rose only in the South.
- For all of 2025, sales totaled 4.084 million, up slightly from 4.067 million in 2024.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Jumped 5.1% in December

Michael J. Moran

260114J.jpg

260114K.jpg

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a report on producer prices for October because of the government shutdown, but it was able to collect sufficient data retroactively to construct all the usual statistics. Those results were included in the November report, which was published on January 14.

The producer price index for final demand rose 0.2% In November after an increase of 0.1 percent in October. These modest changes followed firmer increases in the prior three months (0.4% on average), leaving little change in the year-over-year increase. The Producer Price Index can fluctuate sharply from month-to-month, but the ups and downs recently have traced a sideways trend, with inflation remaining in a range of approximately 2.0% to 4.0% since early 2024. Inflation in the past several months has been in the middle of that range.

The goods and service components of final demand both posted annual inflation near 3.0% in November (goods at 3.2% and services at 2.9%), but they were moving along different trajectories. Good inflation was drifting upward, while service inflation was easing slightly. Casual observation suggests that tariffs might be playing a role in the pickup in goods inflation. Tariffs could be leading to higher prices of inputs for domestic producers, which might be passed on to final prices. The year-over-year increase in final goods inflation totaled only 0.4% in April, when President Trump announced draconian tariffs, but it has since climbed to 3.2%.

The final demand PPI, in addition to goods and service components, also has a construction component, although it has a small weight in the overall index (2.6%). This component was unchanged in November after an increase of 1.6% in October; the year-over-year change totaled 2.7%. The BLS claims that monthly changes in the construction component are seasonally adjusted, but the published figures seem to have residual seasonality. Specifically, the first month of many quarters often shows an outsized change. In the chart below, the spikes upward and downward are nearly always in the first month of a quarter.

In addition to final demand measures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes price indexes for intermediate goods and services produced by US firms. The intermediate service measure had been showing a downward drift in inflation, although it has taken a slight turn upward in recent months. Among producers of processed goods, inflation at the intermediate level has taken a sharp turn since mid-2024, moving from deflation to essentially no inflation one year later. Inflation remained close to zero for a time, but a renewed upward trend began in the spring of last year (after April – one wonders about the effect of tariffs).

The BLS publishes an index for unprocessed goods at the intermediate level, but this measure is wild. Month-to-month changes are often pronounced, and the year-over-year change swings sharply as well. Since mid-2024, year-over-year inflation has ranged from -32.1% to 9.3%.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260114L.jpg

260114M.jpg

- Offsetting drifts in final demand for goods and services leave inflation steady at 3%.
- Inflation quickens for producers of intermediate goods and services.

Producer Prices: Range Bound Since Mid-2024

Winnie Tapasanun

260114N15.jpg

260114O15.jpg

Total retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in November—exceeding expectations—after a downwardly revised 0.1% easing in October (0.0% initially) and a 0.1% uptick in September (unrevised), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. November marked the fifth m/m gain in six months. A 0.4% m/m November increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate stood at 3.3% in November and October, the lowest since October 2024; this compared with 3.9% in November 2024 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a peak of 51.8% in April 2021.

Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) in November, the sixth straight m/m rise, after a 0.2% increase in October (+0.4% initially). A 0.3% m/m November increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts grew 1.0% (-0.7% y/y) following a 1.6% October decline; this compared to a 2.5% rise (-4.3% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales following a 6.7% October drop.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) in November, the sixth m/m rise in seven months, after a 0.6% rebound in October. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials rose 0.4% (5.0% y/y), also up for the sixth time in seven months, following a 0.5% October increase.

Sales by category mostly increased m/m in November. To the upside, sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales climbed 1.9% (7.8% y/y) in November, the fourth m/m increase in five months, after gaining at the same rate in October. Miscellaneous store sales rose 1.7% (16.3% y/y), the third consecutive m/m rise, after a 1.5% October increase. Gasoline station sales recovered 1.4% (3.2% y/y), the fifth m/m gain in six months, following a 1.2% October drop. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 1.3% (-2.8% y/y), the first m/m rise since August, reversing a 1.3% October decrease. Clothing & accessory store sales grew 0.9% (7.5% y/y), the eighth m/m increase in nine months, after a 1.2% October gain. Nonstore retail sales rose 0.4% (7.2% y/y), the ninth m/m rise in 10 months, on top of a 1.0% October increase.

Meanwhile, electronics & appliance store sales held steady (2.7% y/y) in November after a 0.1% uptick in October and two consecutive m/m declines. General merchandise store sales were virtually unchanged (+2.1% y/y) in November after a 0.5% increase in October; within this grouping, department store sales fell 2.9% (+0.3% y/y) following a 4.9% October rebound (the largest m/m gain since February 2022). Furniture & home furnishing store sales slipped 0.1% (-1.4% y/y), the third m/m decline in four months, after a 1.8% October rise.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales recovered 0.3% (6.7% y/y) in November, up for the second month in three, following a 0.2% decline in October. Food & beverage store sales edged up 0.1% (2.4% y/y), the fifth m/m increase in six months, after a 0.2% October rebound.

Consumers appeared to dine out in November despite still-high inflation. Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) in November, the fifth m/m rise in six months, following an upwardly revised 0.1% easing in October (-0.4% initially).

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

The Fed’s latest **Beige Book** covering regional economic conditions can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20260114.pdf).

260114P15.jpg

260114Q15.jpg

- November total retail sales +0.6% (+3.3% y/y); fifth m/m gain in six months.
- Ex-auto sales +0.5% (+4.3% y/y); auto sales +1.0% (-0.7% y/y).
- Gains m/m: sporting goods (+1.9%), misc. stores (+1.7%), gasoline stations (+1.4%), and bldg. materials (+1.3%).
- Declines m/m: department stores (-2.9%) and furniture stores (-0.1%).

U.S. Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected in November

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260114A1.jpg

260114B1.jpg

Mortgage applications jumped 28.5% w/w (55.1% y/y) in the week ending January 9 after rising 0.3% w/w (+60.8% y/y) in the week of January 2, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 15.9% w/w (14.0% y/y) in the week ending January 9 after falling 6.2% w/w (+24.7% y/y) in the week ending January 2 and following five consecutive weekly declines. Applications for loan refinancing surged 40.1% w/w (128.1% y/y) in the latest week, after a rise of 7.4% w/w (133.6% y/y) in the January 2 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 6.35% in the week ending January 9 from 6.42% in the week ending January 2. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.75% in the latest week from 5.80% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 9bps to 6.54% in the January 9 week from 6.45% in the January 2 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 38bps to 5.60% in the latest week after jumping 28bps to 5.98% in the January 2 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 60.2% of total applications in the January 9 week from 56.6% in the week ending January 2. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.0% in the week ending January 9 from 6.3% in the week ending January 2.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 6.3% w/w (9.9% y/y) to $403,600 in the week ending January 9 after declining 4.5% w/w (+5.6% y/y) to $379,800 in the week ending January 2. The average size of a purchase loan rose 7.7% w/w (4.9% y/y) to $440,300 in the latest week after dropping 4.2% w/w (-1.4% y/y) to $408,700 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 6.0% w/w (27.8% y/y) to $379,200 in the week ending January 9 after retrenching 4.1% w/w (+27.8% y/y) to $357,700 in the January 2 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase and refinancing loan applications jumped in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.35%.
- Average loan size rose.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Surged in the Week of January 9

Robert Brusca

260114E.jpg

When inflation fell in the post COVID. Finish inflation slipped easily below the 2% mark and then accelerated rather strongly but continued to remain below 2% most of the time until recently. In September of last year, Finish inflation once again made a strong move below 2%. The harmonized inflation rate over 12 months for Finland is 1.3% in October, 1.5% in November, and 1.7% in December. These are all 12-month, year-over-year gains. From October through November, Finland’s core measure of the HICP also has been below 2%.

In December, Finland's HICP measure kicked up its heels to log a 0.3% gain after rising 0.2% month-to-month in November and falling by 0.5% in October. Among the 9 categories that make up the detailed national CPI that's released at the same time as the HICP, four of the components showed gains less than 0.2% with three components showing gains of 0.6% or more on a monthly basis. This followed a November report in which seven of the nine categories and the national index itself showed month-to-month declines and where 55% of the categories decelerated from October. By comparison, in December 85% of the categories accelerated relative to November, but then given the weak nature of the November report, that's not particularly surprising. October had been another month of extremely disciplined prices with the headline HICP falling by 0.5% month-to-month and with six declines in monthly prices, against accelerations in only 35% of the categories. Clearly Finland has been in a period when inflation has been extremely tempered.

Sequential trends showed that the HICP headline measure is up by only 1.7% over 12 months although it's up at a 5.9% annual rate over six months and then up by only a 0.1% annual rate over three months. Inflation accelerates for 40% of the categories over 12 months compared to 12-months ago, it accelerates over 6 months compared to 12-months for 60% of the categories, and it accelerates over 3 months compared to 6-months only 30% of the categories. The year-over-year and three-month performances shows a great deal of inflation discipline in Finland.

The rankings, or queue standings, of the inflation rates show the headline, which is up 1.7% over 12 months at a 56.1 percentile ranking over that period back to 2001. That places the measure on slightly above its median on data back to 2001. The national index, however, is up by only 0.2% over that span. And it has a 14.3 percentile weight extremely weak among the components in the domestic price index: five of them have rankings above the 50-percentile mark overall on 12-month changes back to 2001. The greatest increases are in health & medical care with a 90.4 percentile standing, recreation & culture prices have an 81.7 percentile standing, communication has 83-percentile standing, education has a 55.2 percentile standing, and food & nonalcoholic beverages are close to the median at a 50.4 percentile standing. The weakest prices on the standing basis are housing, fuel & light at an 8.7 percentile standing and as well as other goods & services at a 5.7 percentile standing.

260114.jpg

**Summing up**
Finland is unusual in Europe for having inflation broadly well under control since inflation has come down following the COVID episode. Inflation has rarely been above 2%; when it has edged above 2%, it hasn't been above it by very much. Finish inflation continues to be extremely disciplined. However, the core rate of inflation, whose data lag by one-month behind the headline data, still runs at a slightly hotter pace than the headline.

Finland

Inflation in Finland Continues Dive Below 2%

260113F29.jpg

260113G29.jpg

New single-family home sales dipped 0.1% m/m (+18.7% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 737,000 units in October following rises of 3.8% to 738,000 in September and 11.3% to 711,000 in August (+20.5%, 800,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected sales of 710,000 for October. The October figure was the first m/m decline since July, though sales remained 42.0% up from the July 2022 low of 519,000. The sales dip occurred alongside a drop in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.25% in October, the lowest since September 2024, after declining to 6.35% in September; it had subsequently continued trending downward, according to Freddie Mac.

By region, October new home sales fell m/m in all major regions except the South. Sales in the West plunged 36.3% (-24.8% y/y) to 109,000 in October, the lowest level since July 2022, after a 9.6% increase in September. Sales in the Northeast dropped 14.3% (-40.0% y/y) to 24,000 after registering at 28,000 in September and August. Sales in the Midwest fell 9.0% (+21.3% y/y) to 91,000 following a strong 25.0% September gain. For these three regions, October marked the first m/m decline since July. In contrast, sales in the South surged 16.9% (42.1% y/y) to 513,000, the highest level since March 2021, after a 1.8% September decline. The South remained the dominant region, accounting for 69.6% of total U.S. new home sales.

The median sales price of a new home fell 3.3% (-8.0% y/y) to $392,300 in October on top of a 3.4% decline to $405,800 in September, marking the fourth m/m fall in five months and the lowest level since July 2021. The median sales price had fallen 14.8% since its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. Meanwhile, the average sales price of a new home rose 3.0% (-4.6% y/y) to $498,000 in October after an 8.1% drop to $483,500 in September. The average price was 8.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market held steady at 488,000 (+1.7% y/y) in October after four straight m/m declines. The latest figure was 14.6% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale remained at 7.9 months in October and September—the lowest reading since September 2024—after falling to 8.3 months in August. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.7 months in October, the highest since March 2025, after registering at 2.4 months in September and August. The latest number was above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260113H29.jpg

260113I29.jpg

- October sales -0.1% (+18.7% y/y) to 737,000; still 42.0% above the July ’22 low.
- Sales fall m/m in all major regions except the South (+16.9%).
- Median sales price down to $392,300, lowest since July ’21; avg. price up to $498,000.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale holds steady at 7.9 mths., lowest since Sept. '24.

U.S. New Home Sales Ease in October After Two Straight M/M Increases

260113L.jpg

260113M.jpg

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December, while the core index (prices excluding food and energy) rose 0.2%. Both measures were faster than the averages of 0.1 percent in the prior two months. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a CPI for October because of the government shutdown. Both the headline and core indexes showed increases of 0.2% for the two-month period from September to November.)

The December results were not pronounced enough to suggest that the restraint in October and November reflected distortions triggered by the government shutdown. At the same time, they were not soft enough to suggest that October and November were signaling faster deceleration in inflation. The past three months seemed to be showing the same degree of random volatility seen in the prior two years, with the underlying trends showing a slight degree of deceleration. The year-over-year increase in headline CPI totaled 2.7%, only slightly slower than 3.0% in mid-2024. The Core has eased a bit more: 2.6% in December versus 3.3% in mid 2024.

260113N.jpg

Prices of core goods and services have been following different paths in the past few years, and they carried different signals in December. Prices of core goods showed no month-to-month change in December, which kept the year-over-year trajectory moving sideways. The flat pattern is encouraging in that it suggests that core goods inflation is perhaps steadying after trending upward since mid-2024. Core service prices rose 0.3 percent in December, in line with the recent average. Core service inflation showed little easing in the early part of 2025, but hints of slowing emerged from September to November. December results, though, raised questions about faster deceleration in service inflation.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

- Not by enough to suggest that restraint in October and November reflected distortions from the government shutdown
- But by enough to suggest that October and November reflected normal volatility rather than the beginning of a slower trend.

December CPI: Price Increases Quickened After Two Slow Months

260113E.jpg

Japan’s economy watchers index at year-end weakened slightly, but the future index strengthened slightly to counterbalance the drop-off. The December current index is weaker than it was in October as well, as is the headline for the future index. But the queue, or rank, standings of these indexes show the current index at a 60th percentile standing and a queue standing for the future index at its 70th percentile. Despite the end of year give back, the index headline readings are still, for the most part, firm-to-solid.

**The Current Index**
That is an assessment about the rankings of the December data compared to their respective histories back to end 2004- a twenty-year period. However, in terms of the diffusion values of the index per se, the current index has only two readings above the 50 mark indicating actual expansion. Expansion is the rule in current services industries and in nonmanufacturing, a broader sector dominated by services. Employment and readings for corporations overall both show readings close to neutral with diffusion at 49.2 or better, but still short of 50. Current retail at 46.5 is the weakest sector and shows the second weakest diffusion reading.  

The current index standings on employment has a reading below 50%- and that is despite having a diffusion reading near 50 -nearly  unchanged employment month-to-month. That diffusion reading for December is a low relative to its own history. The strongest two sectors on rankings are services and eating & drinking places with standings in the 70-percentile range. Apart from the weak employment standing, the weakest rankings are in the range of the lower sixty percentiles with only retailing lower, in its 56.5 percentile, manufacturing at its 61.7 percentile. 

**The Future Index**
The Future index has a slightly higher queue standing than the current index as noted above, but it is not vastly different. No future components rankings are below their 50%, but again, employment is weakest with a ranking in its 50th-percentile and with housing in its 53rd percentile. Nonmanufacturing and services have the highest queue standings.

In terms of diffusion readings as opposed to standings, the future index headline is above 50 unlike for the current headline. Six of nine observations in December have future readings in their respective 50.6 percentiles. The weakest future reading, housing, with a 46.2 reading, is followed by retailing and eating & drinking places, each at 49.6. But the above-50 readings ae not strong per-se either. The strongest is the services sector at 52.4, then nonmanufacturing at 51.7, followed by employment at 51.4 (and it has the weakest queue standing among future readings). Corporations have a diffusion reading at 50.9, households at 50.3, and manufacturers at 50.2. And that 50.2 reading for manufacturers has a 70.4 percentile standing.

Always remember that diffusion and the rank standings are different things and very different concepts even though they are both measured as percentages; they can be quite different. Various series have different histories and tendencies. Not too surprisingly the current and future diffusion readings are highly correlated (0.96) while the standings are not so well correlated in December between the current and future (0.37). The correlation I speak about above between diffusion and standing is at 0.20 for the current readings in December but is higher at 0.53 for the December future components.

260113.jpg

**Summing up**
The differences in the diffusion values tell us that retailing, households and employment are expected to pick up over the next six months. But housing is expected to weaken.

Japan is still in a fragile state with a relatively new PM still getting adjusted (but rumored to be considering an early snap-election). And with the economy generating excess inflation even with a shrinking population, addressing inflation in Japan is trickier since the Bank of Japan does not want to slay inflation at the cost of bringing back deflation. So, policy is Japan walks on eggshells.

Japan

Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in December 2025

Andrew Cates

**The growth consensus for 2026** 
Consensus growth forecasts for 2026 have continued to firm over the past six months, with upward revisions most pronounced in economies that are more directly exposed to the global AI investment cycle. Taiwan stands out, reflecting its central role in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and the spillovers from sustained AI-related capex across the global tech supply chain. The US has also seen a sizeable upgrade, consistent with strong domestic investment in AI infrastructure and data-centre capacity, alongside resilient demand for high-value tech services. Elsewhere in Asia, upgrades to South Korea and, to a lesser extent, China and India point to a broader regional benefit from the AI-driven electronics and capital-goods cycle, even as underlying macro conditions remain mixed. Canada has also seen modest upward revisions, likely reflecting its close integration with US investment trends. By contrast, revisions across much of Europe and Japan have been more muted, while forecasts for Russia remain under downward pressure.

large_260115Z1.jpg

medium_260115Z1.jpg

small_260115Z1.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z1.jpg

260115Z1.jpg

**The next steps for central bank policy** 
Based on responses to the special questions in the latest Blue Chip survey, the chart highlights how uncertain panelists remain about the precise timing of the next policy move, even where there is broad agreement on direction. Expectations for both the Fed and the Bank of England are now loosely centred on March 2026 as the most likely window for the next easing step, but the spread of responses points to limited conviction and a high sensitivity to incoming data. By contrast, panelists continue to see the ECB as largely through its easing cycle, with a clear majority expecting any further move only later, if at all. The Bank of Japan remains the clear outlier: while further tightening is still the central expectation, views are split on timing, with panelists divided between a March move and a hike pushed beyond April 2026—highlighting ongoing uncertainty over the durability of domestic inflation and wage dynamics.

medium_260115Z2.jpg

small_260115Z2.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z2.jpg

260115Z2.jpg

**The UK economy and BoE policy** 
While Blue Chip panelists remain divided on the precise timing of the Bank of England’s next policy cut, the latest run of UK data is tilting market expectations toward an earlier move. Economic releases have increasingly fallen short of expectations, a pattern that has coincided with a steady decline in short-dated gilt yields. The negative surprise profile reflects a combination of weak household demand and softer labour-market indicators. This has generated downside momentum in the data, reinforcing the case—at least from a market perspective—for earlier or deeper policy easing.

large_260115Z3.jpg

medium_260115Z3.jpg

small_260115Z3.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z3.jpg

260115Z3.jpg

**The impact of Artificial Intelligence**
Responses to the special questions in the latest Blue Chip survey also suggest that panelists are divided over the timing of AI’s macroeconomic impact in the US. A sizeable share already reports seeing noticeable effects, consistent with the rapid pace of AI-related investment and adoption over the past year. At the same time, a similarly large group expects AI’s impact to become more evident only over the next one to three years, implying a belief that productivity and growth effects will materialise with a lag. These views are notable given that a majority of panelists continue to judge anticipated AI-related gains as being overstated in financial markets, underscoring the risk of disappointment—and potential equity market volatility—if realised outcomes fail to match elevated expectations.

medium_260115Z4.jpg

small_260115Z4.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z4.jpg

260115Z4.jpg

**US business formation and productivity growth**
The chart points to a renewed pick-up in US productivity growth alongside a marked step-up in business applications, a combination that has naturally fuelled interest in the role of AI. The acceleration in output per hour over the past year coincides with a surge in corporate formations, potentially reflecting both heightened investment in new technologies and the emergence of new, AI-enabled business models. That said, productivity growth has historically been highly cyclical, often strengthening late in the cycle or during periods of labour hoarding and cost discipline, before fading again. As such, while AI may be contributing at the margin, it remains too early to conclude that the recent improvement marks a durable, technology-driven shift rather than another cyclical upswing.

large_260115Z5.jpg

medium_260115Z5.jpg

small_260115Z5.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z5.jpg

260115Z5.jpg

**China’s export growth**
This week’s China trade data revealed that its export growth has continued to rotate away from the US and toward Europe and ASEAN, a pattern that has become more pronounced over the past year. While exports to the US have fallen sharply on a year-on-year basis, shipments to both Europe and ASEAN have held up markedly better, and in recent months have returned to positive growth. This divergence is consistent with the tightening of US trade policy toward China, including higher tariffs, expanded export controls and broader efforts to “de-risk” supply chains. By contrast, trade with Europe and ASEAN appears to be benefiting from trade diversion and re-routing, as Chinese firms redirect exports toward markets where barriers remain lower and supply-chain integration is deeper.

large_260115Z6.jpg

medium_260115Z6.jpg

small_260115Z6.jpg

thumbnail_260115Z6.jpg

260115Z6.jpg

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions—most recently around Venezuela—and renewed political noise, including questions over Federal Reserve independence. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. Against this mixed backdrop, the charts this week point to a global outlook that is becoming more differentiated rather than uniformly weaker. Blue Chip forecasts for 2026 growth have edged higher over the past six months, with upgrades concentrated in economies most exposed to the AI investment cycle, notably the US and parts of Asia (chart 1). Central bank expectations remain fluid: while panelists broadly anticipate easing by the Fed and Bank of England, conviction around timing is limited, and the Bank of Japan remains an outlier with further tightening still expected (chart 2). In the UK, that uncertainty sits alongside a deteriorating data flow, with negative economic surprises increasingly tilting market expectations toward an earlier BoE rate cut (chart 3). Turning to the US, special questions highlight a divide over whether AI is already having a noticeable macro impact or whether its effects will emerge more gradually, a tension that mirrors concerns about over-optimism in financial markets (chart4). That debate is echoed in the recent pick-up in US productivity growth and the step-change in business formation—developments that may reflect AI-related dynamics but which also warrant caution given the historically cyclical nature of productivity (chart 5). Finally, China’s trade data point to a continued re-orientation of export growth away from the US and toward Europe and ASEAN, consistent with evolving US trade policy and broader supply-chain realignment (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2mhM227WWeJJ6kRv7sJMiE?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Between Optimism and Uncertainty

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

Charts of the Week: Between Optimism and Uncertainty

Recent Commentaries

Import & Export Prices: Generally Modest Changes

A Dodgy CPI Rent Reading for November – Reprise

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Returns to Positive Territory in January

Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity Rebounds in January

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Declined in Latest Week

EMU IP – Has the Worm Turned?

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints