Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Sandy Batten

250916J2.jpg

250916K2.jpg

Import prices unexpectedly increased 0.3% m/m (0.0% y/y) in August after a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m rise in July (previously 0.4% m/m), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.1% m/m decline had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices also increased 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in August following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m increase in July (previously 0.1% m/m). The Action Economic Forecast Survey had also looked for a 0.1% m/m decline.

Note that these indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the price of goods before taxes. Tariffs are considered taxes and thus are excluded from these calculations.

For imports, fuel prices decreased 0.8% m/m in August following an increase of 2.4% m/m in July and an advance of 0.8% m/m in June. Lower prices for natural gas and petroleum drove the decrease. In August, prices for imported petroleum decreased 0.2% m/m and prices for imported natural gas fell 13.2%, the sixth consecutive monthly decline for the index. Imported fuel prices decreased 10.1% y/y in August.

Prices for nonfuel imports increased 0.4% m/m in August following no change in July. The August advance was the largest monthly increase since the index rose 0.6% in April 2024. Higher prices in August for consumer goods (0.7% m/m), nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.0% m/m), capital goods (0.5% m/m), and automotive vehicles (0.2% m/m) more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds, and beverages (-2.1% m/m). Nonfuel import prices increased 0.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Higher prices for nonagricultural exports drove the August increase in overall export prices. The price index for agricultural exports was unchanged in August (+5.1% y/y) following a 0.2% m/m decline in July. Higher prices for fruit offset lower prices for nuts and soybeans. Nonagricultural export prices increased 0.3% m/m in August, after rising 0.3% m/m in July and 0.6% m/m in June. Higher prices for consumer goods (0.6% m/m), nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (0.2% m/m), capital goods (0.2% m/m), and automotive vehicles (0.2% m/m) drove the increase. Nonagricultural export prices increased 3.2% from August 2024 to August 2025, the largest y/y increase since the index rose 3.9% for the year ended December 2022.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250916L2.jpg

250916M2.jpg

- Import prices rose 0.3% m/m in August against expectations of a small decline.
- The August increase was due to higher prices for nonfuel imports as prices for fuel imports fell for the first time in three months. 
- Export prices also rose 0.3% m/m against expectations of a small decline, reflecting higher prices for nonagricultural exports.

U.S. Import and Export Prices Unexpectedly Rose in August

250916F5.jpg

250916G5.jpg

Total business inventories increased 0.2% m/m (1.5% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June. The y/y gain has decelerated from a recent high of 2.6% in November 2024. Retail inventories rose 0.2% m/m for the third straight month and the y/y increase slowed further to 1.7% in July from 2.4% in June. Factory inventories rose 0.3% m/m (1.5% y/y) in July, their largest monthly gain since December. Wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (1.3% y/y) in July following a 0.2% monthly gain in June.

Within the retail sector, monthly gains were widespread. Food and beverage inventories jumped 0.6% m/m in July. Auto inventories increased 0.5% m/m, while retail inventories excluding autos edged up 0.1% m/m. Furniture store inventories and building materials inventories each rose 0.4% m/m. In contrast, clothing inventories slid 0.2%, and general merchandise store inventories declined 0.3% m/m in July.

Total business sales increased 1.0% m/m (4.0% y/y) in July, their largest monthly gain since February. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m (3.8% y/y) in July with widespread gains across sectors. Separately, in another report released this morning, retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in August. Factory shipments increased by a solid 0.9% m/m (1.8% y/y) in July, their largest monthly gain since July 2024. Wholesale sales jumped 1.4% m/m (6.2% y/y), their largest monthly gain since February.

With the rise in sales outpacing the increase in inventories, the total business inventory/sales ratio edged down to 1.37, its lowest reading since July 2022. The retail I/S ratio was unchanged at 1.29. The factory I/S ratio fell to 1.56, its lowest reading since October 2022. The wholesale I/S edged down to 1.28 in July, its lowest reading since June 2022.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250916H5.jpg

250916I5.jpg

- Total business inventories increased 0.2% m/m in July with increases across sectors.
- Total business sales climbed 1.0% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since February.
- With sales advancing more than inventories, the inventory/sales ratio fell to 1.37, its lowest reading since July 2022.

U.S. Business Sales and Inventories Rose in July

Robert Brusca

250916E.jpg

The finalized version for EMU industrial production in the European Monetary Union in July showed that much better than preliminary data had suggested. Overall output rose 0.3% in July, but output in manufacturing on the month rose by 0.7%. Consumer goods output rose by 1.4% on the month with consumer durables output up by 1.1% and nondurables output up by 1.5%. Intermediate goods output rose by 0.5% with capital goods output rising by 1.3%. All of these are very solid numbers.

The median result for reporting European Monetary Union members had shown a decline of 0.6% for manufacturing output. And, of course, the problem with that is that it's a median among countries without weights being applied to account for size. Germany, for example, showed an increase in output in July of 2.2% in its manufacturing sector, France showed a decline of 1.6%, Italy showed an increase of 1.4%, with Spain showing a rise of 3.8%. That's three of the largest 4 monetary union members showing solid increases in output. 

Sequential data showed that output is holding up quite nicely with growth 2.2% over 12 months, up 3.1% at an annual rate over six months and up by 2.5% in an annual rate over three months. For manufacturing, the results are roughly the same, with a 2.1% gain over 12 months, 3.5% annualized over six months and 2.4% annualized over three months.

The quarter-to-date numbers showed that output is developing nicely in the third quarter with overall output up at a 1.2% annual rate as of July, the first month in the quarter with that growth rate representing annualized growth in July over the second quarter average; manufacturing output on the same basis is up at a 2.6% annual rate. All the sector growth rates are positive as well QTD except for intermediate goods.

Percentile queue standings rank current growth rates among past historic growth rates (back to 2007) and on this basis, overall production growth has a 63.3 percentile rank, manufacturing has a 60.1 percentile rank, consumer goods IP is extremely strong with a 98.2 percentile rank, pushed ahead by nondurables that have a 98-percentile rank. Consumer IP growth is held back somewhat by consumer durables that have only a 45.9 percentile ranking, below its median for the previous period. Intermediate goods and capital goods also have below-median rankings (rankings below 50%) at the 43.6 percentile for intermediate goods and 42.2 percentile for capital goods. Still, none of the sectors is particularly weak; being at the 42nd percentile or better means that the shortfall from the median is not extreme and the weighted average for overall production and for manufacturing still stands in its 60th percentile or better.

As we look down the column to look at country-specific manufacturing readings, we find that there are only 4 of 13 reporting monetary union members with manufacturing output below its median in July. And those countries are Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Greece, all moderate to small-sized economies.

On balance, the performance the monetary union output in July is quite solid. And these readings are joined by an August reading for IP in the United States that showed a surprising positive turn on the month. It's too soon to say that conditions globally are improving faster or more than had been expected; however, there is a whiff of that in the air despite some sour readings on job growth in the United States.

250916.jpg

Europe

Finalized EMU IP Shows More Strength

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we examine a broad set of key developments, from China’s disappointing August data and structural economic challenges to a flurry of central bank decisions across Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia. China’s latest data disappointed again, reinforcing concerns that US trade tariffs are starting to bite as the front-loading boost fades (chart 1). More broadly, China continues to struggle with its transition toward a more consumption-driven economy (chart 2). Recent figures show little sign of this pivot, with trade remaining resilient while consumption still lags.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on interest rates during a central bank-heavy week, following key decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England (chart 3). The BoJ is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady for now as the country navigates a period of political uncertainty after Prime Minister Ishiba’s recent resignation. Still, there has been some good news: the Cabinet Office estimates that Japan’s output gap turned positive for the first time in two years, although figures differ across methods and sources (chart 4).

Turning to Taiwan, uncertainty remains in the semiconductor sector as US tariffs loom. However, major Taiwanese producers’ substantial US investments may position them for exemptions (chart 5). Finally, in Indonesia, Bank Indonesia’s policy decision is also due this week on Wednesday. While the door to monetary easing remains open, the timing of any move is unclear. Meanwhile, Indonesian asset prices fell again after the removal of one of its long-serving Finance Ministers (chart 6), with her successor’s plans raising renewed concerns about fiscal discipline.

**China**
China’s latest monthly data releases disappointed again, showing a further slowdown in growth. This has strengthened investor concerns that US trade tariffs are finally starting to weigh on the economy as earlier front-loading effects fade. Year-on-year growth in retail sales and industrial production fell to their lowest levels in about a year, while fixed asset investment was nearly flat (chart 1). Property prices also extended their multi-year decline. In response to the weakening outlook, calls for additional policy support have grown, though several measures have already been announced. For instance, domestic consumption may get another boost as the government’s new personal consumer loan interest rate subsidy program takes effect this month. If realized, this would follow the one-off lift from the earlier durable goods subsidy program.

250916T1.jpg

Touching on broader structural issues, beyond the near-term challenges of US trade policies, it remains uncertain whether China can make substantive progress in its transition toward a consumption-led economy. The shift away from one driven by exports — increasingly constrained by Western trade barriers — and investment, which has become less efficient, is proving difficult. As of 2023, consumption accounted for about 57% of China’s GDP (chart 2), far below the levels seen in developed economies such as the US, where consumption has consistently exceeded 80% for decades. A transition is possible, though not without challenges. Japan managed a similar shift during the 1990s and 2000s, though largely by way of declining investment rather than rising consumption, as part of its “lost decades.” For China, the question is whether it can navigate this adjustment without inflicting significant economic pain. Recent resilient export data suggest that, for now, the economy is still leaning heavily on its traditional growth drivers rather than moving decisively toward consumption.

250916T2.jpg

**Japan**
Looking ahead, markets face a busy week with a flurry of interest rate decisions from major economies. The most closely watched will be the Fed on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The Fed’s outcome will likely set the tone and influence subsequent central bank moves. In Japan, the recent upgrade to Q2 GDP could justify further policy tightening. However, renewed political uncertainty following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, along with lingering risks from looming US semiconductor tariffs, are likely to keep the Bank of Japan on hold for now, with markets instead eyeing a potential hike later in the year. That said, Japan’s political situation remains fluid. Depending on the outcome of the upcoming elections and the composition of the next government, market expectations around prospective BoJ policy are likely to shift accordingly.

250916T3.jpg

There has, however, been a small sliver of optimism in Japan recently, although upcoming risks, such as those mentioned earlier, could threaten these positive developments. One encouraging sign is that, according to Cabinet Office estimates, Japan’s output gap finally turned positive in calendar Q2 2025 for the first time in two years, as shown in chart 4. A positive output gap is significant for Japan, which has experienced a negative gap for most of the past few decades. It indicates that the economy may finally be operating above its potential rather than underperforming. That said, the output gap is estimate-based, and discrepancies can arise between different methods and sources, as illustrated by the differences between the Cabinet Office’s and the Bank of Japan’s estimates in the chart.

250916T4.jpg

**Taiwan and semiconductors**
Turning to Taiwan, developments from the Trump administration remain in focus, with sectoral tariffs on semiconductors still looming — though exemptions may be granted to firms shifting production to the US or committing to new domestic investments. In this context, major Taiwanese semiconductor producer TSMC may be well-positioned to receive exemptions, given its substantial US investments, including its multi-phase Arizona projects totalling $165 billion. Taiwan, along with other advanced Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea, has already ramped up direct investments in the US (chart 5). Recent trade agreements are expected to further boost these inflows, whether for onshore production or other purposes. This week, Taiwan’s central bank is also set to announce its interest rate decision, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged for a sixth consecutive quarter.

250916T5.jpg

**Indonesia**
Indonesia also has a central bank decision due this week, adding to the central bank-heavy calendar. While the door remains open for further monetary easing, the timing of the next move is still unclear. What is clear, however, is the persistence of political uncertainty, even if protests have somewhat subsided. This fresh bout of uncertainty — which has pressured Indonesian asset prices and weakened the rupiah despite central bank intervention (chart 6) — stems from the recent cabinet reshuffle that removed Sri Mulyani Indrawati, one of Indonesia’s longest-serving and most influential finance ministers. Indrawati was replaced by Purbaya, who has since pledged to inject about 200 trillion rupiah ($12 billion) into the economy to improve banking system liquidity, reigniting concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal discipline. That said, more recent readings suggest that a market recovery—particularly in equities—is already underway.

250916T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Decisions, Decisions

Tom Moeller

250915J11.jpg

250915K11.jpg

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions index declined to -8.7 during September after improving to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The two previous positive reading had been the first above zero since this past winter. The latest reading indicates a decline in economic activity in New York State. A September reading of 5.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions fell to 26.6% in September from 34.7% in August while the percentage reporting a decline rose to 35.4% from 22.8% in August. The latest survey was conducted between September 3 and September 10. The headline reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity and is not calculated from the components.

Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index plunged to 45.7 in September from 54.3 in August. It was the first reading below 50 (separating expansion from contraction) in three months, and was the lowest reading since April 2024. The calculated index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories, each with equal weights (20% each).

The decline this month was paced by a drop in the new orders index to -19.6 from 15.4. Twenty percent of respondents reported an increase in orders, down from 35.9% in August. The percentage reporting a decline in orders doubled to 39.5% last month. The shipments index fell to -17.3 from 12.2 in August. Inventories improved to -4.9 from -6.4, but these two were the first negative readings since last July/August of last year. The supply chain loosened up in September. The delivery times index more than reversed it increases during the last four months and fell to 0.0 after surging to 17.4 in August. It was the lowest reading since April. Ten percent of respondents reported an increase in delivery times, down from nearly 20.2% in July, while 9.8% reported a shortening versus 2.8% in July.

Employment also weakened to -1.2 from 4.4 in August. It was below a July high of 9.2. A lessened 9.1% of respondents reported an increase in hiring while 10.3% reported a decline. The average workweek reading fell to -5.1 this month from 0.2 in August. It was the lowest reading since April. A lessened 6.5% of respondents reported longer hours while a greater 11.7% reported a decline.

Inflation readings fell in September. The prices paid index fell to 46.1 from 54.1 in August and was the lowest reading in six months. A lessened 48.0% of respondents reported higher prices while a greater 2.0% reported a decline. The prices received index eased to 21.6 after sliding to 22.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since February, although both the prices paid & received indexes remain significantly higher than early last year.

Optimism amongst survey respondents about business during the next six months dimmed in September. The index for future general business conditions edged down to 14.8 from 16.0 in August, but still suggested an expectation of increased business activity. New and unfilled orders expectations improved, but the shipments and delivery times readings declined. The future employment reading declined sharply to the lowest level since 2016. The prices paid reading was close to its six-month low; prices received in six months rose. Of some concern, expected capital spending plans weakened, dropping to -3.9 in September to the lowest reading since April.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250915L11.jpg

250915M11.jpg

- First negative reading logged in three months.
- New orders & employment decline.
- Prices paid & received weaken.
- Six-month outlook ahead dims.

Empire State Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Declines in September

250915E.jpg

In the wake of U.S. tariff implementation, we, of course, look for evidence of the impact of that action on global trade performance. In the July trade report for the EMU, there is little direct evidence of a draconian impact on trade in the EMU that coincides with changes in U.S. trade policy. Of course, the EMU picture is of the external trade of that community with the world and not just the United States. But such dire predictions had been made of the impact of U.S. tariff policy that it is very worthwhile to note that such cataclysm has not appeared. Has there been some trade impact? Certainly! Has there been some increases in uncertainty? Yes. But nothing has brought global trade to a screeching halt. In fact, the Baltic Dry goods index shows a rise in trade volumes since early 2025. The current level is comparable to or higher than 2024 and last persistently stronger in 2022.

The euro area trade surplus at 5.3bln euros is higher in July than in June but is much weaker than its 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month averages. In round numbers, the 3-month average is €8bln, the 6-month average is €15bln and the 12-month average is €13bln. So, July runs at less than half the pace of the 12-month average. That may be evidence of U.S. tariff impact.

The overall balance sees disproportionately large-looking effect because it is smaller…smaller than what? Well, the manufacturing surplus is at 27bln euros in July, up by 3bln euros from June, about 3bln euros below the 3-month average of 30bln euros and about 8bln euros below the 12-month average. An eight billion drop on a level of 35bln seems smaller than and eight billion euro drop on 13 bln…but eight billion euros are eight billion euros- but that is only 2.2% of total exports. How we view relativity is important. Is that the draconian U.S. tariff impact?

The nonmanufacturing deficit in the EMU is almost unchanged by month or on any average (at minus 22bln euros).

Growth rates for manufacturing exports show contraction and a worsening trend from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. This is not so for nonmanufacturing exports that log a strong double-digit rise over three months. EMU manufacturing imports show very steady slow growth with modest decay… not so for nonmanufacturing imports that log strong double-digit gains over three months.

**Country level trends**
By country, German exports show growth rate erosion, French exports show acceleration, Italy shows a slowdown but at a still-strong double-digit pace for three months. Finland, Portugal, and Belgium show exports in a state of decline or weakness- mostly decline. The United Kingdom, not an EU member, shows an erratic trend but with 3-month export growth in double digits. There is some export weakness here to be sure but nothing that looks very severe.

On the import side, German imports melt down to a 3-month low annualized pace of +0.1%. French imports speed up to a 6.6% pace over 3 months. The U.K. looks at positive- if irregular- import growth.

250915.jpg

**The global scene**
The global economy and the firms that operate in that broader sphere are buffeted by many trends. Macroeconomic growth shifts, central banks change posture based on policy objectives, there is war in Ukraine due to Russia’s actions and a severe contentious hot spot in the Middle East. Mix in some pollical instability in France… And of course, there have been a number of significant policy shifts in the U.S. as the Trump administration tries to carve out a new international order that it feels will be fairer to the U.S. Agree or not, that is the picture. So far, there has been a lot more complaining and many more dire predictions than there have been dire outcomes.

Global inflation remains as it has been over target but barely changing speed. Growth is still in gear. Global stock markets are performing well. Commodity prices are not inflamed but gold has stepped up. It would be hard to tell a story about all the concerns that have been expressed referencing or supporting these concerns with economic or market data. The most severe shift we can put our finger on is in the U.S. labor market where surprising weak job growth has appeared but was subsequently made less surprising by the admission that job growth had been overstated over the previous year by a significant amount. So where’s the new risk?

U.S. job growth has slowed because of closing its border, and that slowing seems much more severe than the impact on U.S. economic growth. But the Fed has the labor market as part of its dual mandate and so the jobs slowdown is putting Fed policy on edge for a change and will probably result in a Fed rate cut this week with more to come. That would have international repercussions. And U.S. inflation is not low and has been over target for over four years. What such a shift means for global inflation stability is worth asking. But that question is now a live one in the U.S. where the President is pushing for more cuts and has been willing to get aggressive in his treatment of Fed officials to get what he wants.

This is a factor in the global economy. What happens with U.S. monetary policy matters. The treatment of the U.S. central bank and its role as an independence policy maker also matters a great deal to the global economy – in part because the Fed is a trend-setter. So far, the impact of all these shifts in U.S. policy has been modest. Will it remain so? Or is there a build-up of forces that markets have yet to reckon with? Many remain concerned that we have not yet seen the full impact of the Trump administration’s policies on the economy and on markets- let alone the global knock-on impacts. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

EMU Trade Surplus Expands But Stays on Lower Trend Pace

250912F20.jpg

250912G20.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased 4.0% (5.3% y/y) during July to 98.8 after falling in each of the prior three months. The index remained below the recent high of 104.9 in September of last year. The level of home affordability was 9.9% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023, but the latest level was 44.9% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The rise in affordability in July occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y) to $428,500, and mortgage rates fell to 6.80% after two straight months at 6.90%. The price compared to the record $432,900 in June 2024. The fall in mortgage rates left them above their a low of 6.26% in September of last year, though below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. They remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. In July, the principal & interest payment fell 3.3% (-1.0% y/y) to $2,235 per month, well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a lessened 25.3% of income during July, down from 26.3% in June, but increased from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The decline in housing costs in July was accompanied by a rise in median family income. It rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) to $105,986 after rising 0.2% in June. Qualifying income declined 3.3% (-1.0% y/y) to $107,280 after rising 2.3% in June.

Housing affordability improved m/m across the country in July. The index rose 2.8% (1.5% y/y) to 122.0 in the Midwest, and remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index increased 3.4% (6.1% y/y) to 104.7, and the affordability index in the Northeast improved 8.6% (4.4% y/y) to 88.1. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index improved 2.9% (6.8% y/y) to 71.9 in July.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

250912H20.jpg

250912I20.jpg

- Home prices & mortgage rates slip.
- Median income edges higher.
- Affordability increases across country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Improves in July

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip Growth Consensus**
Consensus growth expectations for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies since January, and the chart shows how broad-based the rethink has become. The steepest downgrades have been made to Canada, Taiwan, and the US, while China is little changed. The common thread is a tougher trade environment shaped by the expanded US tariff regime. Those pressures are being compounded by wider global constraints—geopolitical instability, lingering investment-screening and export-control frictions, and a still-elevated cost of capital.

250911Z1.jpg

**US payroll revisions**
Consistent with that thinner 2026 outlook, fresh BLS payroll benchmarks now indicate a materially cooler US jobs backdrop. BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision—which aligns the monthly payroll survey to unemployment-insurance tax records—marked US nonfarm employment down by 911,000 jobs (-0.6%) in the year to March 2025, pointing to a materially softer hiring backdrop than previously believed. This has been flagged as the largest preliminary downgrade on record, with the biggest cuts concentrated in trade (retail/wholesale), leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, and manufacturing, while government saw only a minor trim. As the chart below shows, the revised series (dark line) now tracks noticeably below the previously published path (light line) from late-2024 onward, implying slower momentum through mid-2025. The BLS stresses this is preliminary—based on QCEW administrative data—with final benchmarking due with the 2026 annual update, but the signal adds to the softer tone from recent payroll reports. Markets and forecasters are treating the revision as confirmation that job growth had cooled earlier and more broadly than the headline prints had suggested.

250911Z2.jpg

**Healthcare employment**
Even with the payroll benchmark revision pointing to a softer hiring backdrop, one engine kept humming: healthcare. The question, then, isn’t just how many jobs were added—it’s where they came from. As the chart shows, employment growth across many advanced economies has been disproportionately concentrated in healthcare and social care. Since end-2023, the sector has surged by roughly 5%–6% in the US, UK, and Japan—three to four times the pace of overall employment—pushing healthcare’s share of total jobs toward 14%–15% (gold diamonds in chart). The euro area is the notable laggard, with more muted gains in both healthcare and aggregate payrolls. Demographics are arguably the main culprit: ageing populations, post-pandemic treatment backlogs, and rising long-term-care needs continue to ratchet up demand for staff. But composition matters: healthcare tends to have lower measured productivity and limited tradability, so its growing weight props up headline employment while diluting aggregate productivity growth and tightening fiscal space (given the sector’s heavy public funding and regulation). In short, the resilience of headline jobs is increasingly a healthcare story, even as cyclical, tradable sectors remain softer.

250911Z3.jpg

**China’s trade**
China’s August trade print reinforced the divergence in its export map—weakness to the US, strength to ASEAN. Headline exports rose 4.4% y/y in dollar terms (slowest in six months) while imports edged up by 1.5%, leaving a hefty $102bn surplus. But beneath the top line, shipments to the US plunged 33% y/y, whereas exports to ASEAN jumped 22.5% y/y. Accompanying commentary tied the split to fading support from the brief US tariff “truce,” the drag from new and prospective duties, and Beijing’s push to deepen ASEAN ties—including an accelerated upgrade to the China-ASEAN FTA—as firms re-route supply chains and sales toward the region. The message for global demand: China’s export engine is still running, but is being rebalanced toward ASEAN and away from the US, with the composition shift muting the impulse to US manufacturing while supporting Southeast Asia’s role in Chinese supply networks.

250911Z4.jpg

**Private sector indebtedness**
While financial markets often tend to fixate on public debt when judging national solvency—via spreads, ratings chatter, and rising bond yields—the historical trigger for many financial crises is excessive private-sector leverage (households and non-financial corporates) colliding with tighter credit. The chart underscores why France merits heightened attention right now: its private non-financial debt stock sits well above peers—near 280% of GDP—far higher than the euro-area average (~200%), Germany (~180%), the UK (~150%) and the US (~115%). With France also navigating fresh political instability this week, the vulnerability channel to watch is less the sovereign’s flow deficit and more the balance-sheet sensitivity of firms and households to weaker growth and refinancing needs in a bank-centric system. By contrast, the UK and US enter with lower private leverage (and, in the US, deeper market-based intermediation), implying a smaller amplification risk even if gilts or Treasuries cheapen.

250911Z5.jpg

**Global supply chain pressures**
Pivoting from balance-sheet risks to the flow side of inflation, the much-feared tariff-driven squeeze on supply chains hasn’t materialised. In the run-up to, and after, recent US tariff packages—covering Chinese EVs, batteries, solar inputs and broader manufacturing goods—commentators warned of renewed bottlenecks, costly re-routing via third countries, longer lead times, and a fresh wave of “landed-cost” inflation. The chart suggests otherwise. The NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (dark line) remains close to zero, back at pre-pandemic norms despite those policy shocks, while Citi’s Global Inflation Surprise Index (light line) hovers around/below zero, indicating price data are no longer consistently overshooting forecasts. In short, tariff headlines haven’t yet translated into broad supply stress: logistics capacity appears ample and pass-through contained. Risks remain—energy spikes, shipping disruptions, or a wider tariff net—but for now the supply-side impulse to inflation looks neutral, not acute.

250911Z6.jpg

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has dimmed—since January, consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies, reflecting a tougher trade regime and geopolitical frictions (chart 1). Turning to the data, the BLS’s preliminary payroll benchmark revision shaved 911k jobs from US employment from April 2024 to March 2025, confirming the idea of a broader cooling in hiring (chart 2). Within that softer backdrop, the composition of job creation has tilted further toward healthcare and social care - not just in the US - supporting headcount but possibly diluting aggregate productivity (chart 3). Elsewhere, China’s latest trade print highlighted a continued rotation of exports away from the US toward other Asian economies (chart 4). On vulnerabilities, France’s private-sector debt leverage—well above peers—underscores that crises more often spring from private balance sheets than sovereign ones (chart 5). And, finally, fears that new US tariffs would reignite supply-chain pressures continue to look overstated, at least for now (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/7rTqgJljYeK0ZmCmv8PQRn?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Labouring the Point

large_250917F20.jpg

medium_250917F20.jpg

small_250917F20.jpg

thumbnail_250917F20.jpg

250917F20.jpg

large_250917G20.jpg

medium_250917G20.jpg

small_250917G20.jpg

thumbnail_250917G20.jpg

250917G20.jpg

At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced to 4.00%-to-4.25% from 4.25%-to-4.50%. It was the lowest range since December 2022. The current range compares to a high of 5.25%-to-5.50% in mid-September 2024. Today’s target range matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The action was supported by all but one FOMC member who preferred lowering the target range by 50 basis points.

The following statement was released after today’s meeting: “Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.”

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”

“The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.”

For this meeting, the Fed **updated its economic expectations** versus those in June. Expected real GDP growth in 2025 was raised to 1.6% from 1.4%, in 2026 to 1.8% from 1.6%, 2027 to 1.9% from 1.8% and 1.8% in 2028. The expected unemployment rate at end of 2025 was unchanged at 4.5%; at the end of 2026, it was lowered to 4.4% from 4.5% and at the end of 2027 to 4.3% from 4.4%. The rate in 2028 was forecasted to be 4.2%.

Expectations for PCE price inflation in 2025 held at 3.0%; in 2026, they were raised to 2.6% from 2.4% and in 2027, they were left at 2.1%. The forecast for inflation in 2028 is 2.0%. Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 were left at 3.1% but raised to 2.6% from 2.4% for 2026, and for 2027, they were unchanged at 2.1%. Core inflation in 2028 is expected to be 2.0%.

The projected Fed funds rate for year-end 2025 was lowered to 3.6% from 3.9%. For 2026, it was lowered to 3.4% from 3.6%, and for 2027, it was reduced to 3.1% from 3.4%. For yearend 2028, it was set at 3.1%.

The U.S. economic figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database & the interest rate data are in the **WEEKLY** & **DAILY** databases. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_250917H20.jpg

medium_250917H20.jpg

small_250917H20.jpg

thumbnail_250917H20.jpg

250917H20.jpg

large_250917I20.jpg

medium_250917I20.jpg

small_250917I20.jpg

thumbnail_250917I20.jpg

250917I20.jpg

- FOMC lowers funds rate target by quarter point after stability since December 2024.
- The decision was approved by all but one FOMC voter.
- Expected GDP growth & price expectations raised.

FOMC Fed Funds Range Is Reduced; Economic Growth & Inflation Expectations Raised

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

FOMC Fed Funds Range Is Reduced; Economic Growth & Inflation Expectations Raised

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline in August

U.S. Mortgage Applications Surge 29.7% in the September 12 Week

U.K. CPIH Inflation: Stable and Excessive

U.S. Retail Sales Show Resilience in August

U.S. Industrial Production Edges Up in August on Auto Rebound

U.S. Home Builders Index Holds Steady in September

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints