Viewpoints: May 2021

Navigating the twists and turns of economic and financial market data has never been easy. But the interplay between economic outcomes and financial market outcomes is often the most perplexing. Who would have thought, for example, [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in April show widespread dispersion of activity. In the three months ending in April the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware again inched down). 15 states, [...]

Job growth was generally modest across the states in April, corresponding to the muted national figure. California was an outlier, with a strong payroll gain of nearly 102,000 (0.8 percent). Hawaii’s job count grew a vigorous 1.8 [...]

Last week’s surprisingly big climb in April’s US CPI data has further energised a debate about inflation. In one corner of that debate are a majority of economic forecasters and policymakers. The view here is that any recent and [...]

In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% driven, in part, by the 10% (not annualized) increase in the price of used cars and trucks. Although the relative importance of used cars and trucks in the CPI is a low 3%, [...]

Federal Reserve officials have made a bold claim arguing that the current run-up in consumer price inflation is "transitory," pushed higher due to base effects and a temporary burst in pent-up demand as the economy re-opens. The Fed [...]

Inflation has arrived, evident by the 4.2% gain in the consumer price index over the past twelve months. But the most significant increase since 2008 still is not fully capturing "experienced" inflation since it is missing the rise in [...]

Last week the Biden administration announced that it is contemplating a further major package of fiscal policy measures for the US economy. While the size of the package that is being touted caught the imagination of many observers it [...]