Viewpoints: March 2021

Incoming economic data in recent weeks have been encouraging. Forward looking indicators such as March's flash purchasing managers' surveys elicited across-the-board improvements in both manufacturing and services. Every major country [...]

State labor markets were, in general, little-changed in February. Only 14 states reported statistically significant changes in payrolls—11 up, 3 down. The two eye-popping moves were the increases in California--141,000 (.9 [...]

State personal incomes were wildly erratic in the 2020:Q4, with annual rates of growth ranging from South Dakota’s 16.7 percent to -16.1 percent in both Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. Two sharply divergent forces were at work: the [...]

The Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters [...]

In many respects this year has started where last year left off. The daily news cycle is still dominated by stories about COVID-19 and about how governments are responding to its ebb and flow. A by now familiar pattern has established [...]

Once again, household portfolios are oversized and unbalanced, driven higher by a massive gain in a single asset (equities). Unbalanced portfolios have proven to be vulnerable to abrupt and sharp corrections. Will history repeat? The [...]

The understatement of housing inflation in the consumer price index has reached a new milestone. As reported, the gap between the actual change in house prices and owners' rent, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), [...]

Financial markets have clearly become much more unsettled in recent weeks. Growing concerns about inflation risks and how Central Banks might respond to prospective price pressures seem to be top of the worry list. And rising long- [...]