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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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MATLAB

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

Sandy Batten

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Real GDP grew 3.8% q/q saar in the second quarter of 2025, revised up from 3.3% in the previous estimate and 3.0% in the first estimate. The previously reported 0.5% q/q decline in Q1 was revised down slightly to a 0.6% decline. A 3.3% quarterly increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth over the four quarters ending in Q2 was unrevised at 2.1% y/y. The previously reported 1.7% q/q not annualized rise in corporate profits in Q2 was revised down to a meager 0.2% quarterly increase.

Significant upward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were the key factors behind the upward revision to overall GDP growth. Real personal consumption expenditures growth was revised up to 2.5% q/q saar from 1.6% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the advance report. And upward revision to spending on services (2.6% vs 1.2%) was the major factor behind the upward revision to total consumer spending. Nonresidential business investment rose a revised 7.3% in Q3 from 5.7% in the second estimate and 1.9% in the advance report. There were upward revisions to all three components of business investment—structures, equipment and intellectual property—with the largest being to intellectual property (15.0% vs 12.8%). Residential investment was revised down to a 5.1% quarterly decline from -4.7% in the second estimate.

The two biggest factors behind overall Q2 growth, inventory investment and the trade deficit, were each revised slightly in the third estimate. The 3.29%-point subtraction from the decline in inventory investment was revised a bit larger to -3.44%-points in the second estimate. Inventory investment had added 2.58%-points to Q1 growth. The trade deficit narrowed a little less than previously estimated. So, its positive contribution to Q2 growth was revised down slightly to 4.83%-points from 4.95%-points. Net exports had subtracted 4.68%-points from Q1 growth. The 0.2% q/q decline previously reported for government spending was revised up slightly to a 0.1% quarterly fall.

Encouragingly, with meaningful upward revisions to both consumption and business fixed investment, measures of aggregate demand for Q2 were revised up significantly. Aggregate demand had been extremely weak in the advance GDP report, eliciting concern of a meaningful pending slowdown in the overall economy. However, the second and third estimates have shown solid growth of aggregate demand. Final sales to domestic purchasers increased 2.4% q/q in Q2 in today’s report versus 1.6% in the second estimate and an anemic 1.1% in the advance report. Similarly, final sales to private domestic purchasers (the Fed’s preferred measure of domestic demand) was revised up to 2.9% from 1.9% in the second estimate and 1.2% in the advance report.

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There was little revision to measures of inflation in this report. Inflation in Q2 as measured by the GDP price index was revised up slightly to 2.1% q/q saar in today’s report from 2.0% in the second estimate. The central part of overall inflation—PCE inflation—was also revised up slightly in today’s report, to 2.1% from 2.0%.

Today’s report also included annual benchmark revisions for the period Q1 2020 to Q1 2025. In general, these revisions were de minimis. After the benchmark revision, annual real GDP grew 2.4% at an annual rate from 2019 to 2024, the same as previously reported. Similarly, real personal consumption expenditures rose 2.9% both before and after revision. Nonresidential business investment increased 3.6% over this period after revision, up slightly from 3.5% before revision. Residential investment inched up 0.7% after revision versus a 0.9% rise before the revision. And government spending growth was unrevised at 1.8%.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Real GDP advanced at a 3.8% saar in Q3 in the third estimate, up from 3.3% in the second estimate and 3.0% in the advance report.
- Stronger consumer spending and business fixed investment were the major factors behind the upward revision.
- Meaningful upward revisions to measures of aggregate demand.
- Small upward revision to GDP and PCE inflation.
- Annual benchmark revision benign; annual real GDP growth from 2019 to 2024 was unrevised at 2.4%.

Resilient Consumer Propels Upward Revision to Q2 2025 GDP Growth

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 14,000 to 218,000 in the week of September 20 from 232,000 in the week of September 13, revised from 231,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 234,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 237,500, down from 240,250, revised from 240,000.

In the week ended September 13, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.926 million, a decrease of 2,000 from 1,928 million in the prior week, revised from 1.920 million. The four-week moving average was 1.930 million, a decrease from 1.935 million, revised from 1.933 million.

In the week ending September 13 the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) remained at 1.3%.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended September 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.45%), and Connecticut and Washington (both 2.01%). The lowest were in Kentucky (0.19%), South Dakota (0.23%), Florida (0.38%), North Carolina (0.42%), Alabama (0.45%), Louisiana and Nebraska (both 0.47%), and Iowa (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.61%), Illinois (1.58%), Pennsylvania (1.48%), and Texas (1.16%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims declined 14,000 in latest week.
- Continuing claims edged down slightly.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Declined in Latest Week

Robert Brusca

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The Confederation of British Industry report shows some improvement and deterioration in the same month; retailing improves while wholesale survey worsens sharply. The look-ahead to October for retailing weakens sharply while there was mixed performance in the outlook for wholesaling. The report doesn't do much to clarify the outlook.

**Current Sales:** Current sales compared to a year ago improved to -29 in September from -32 in August. Orders compared to a year ago also improved to -36 from -40. These improvements still leave the monthly reading levels worse than their respective 12-month averages although sales at the time of year are significantly better than their 12-month average. The queue percentile standings for these metrics of sales are all weak, the only element in the report that is strong, or firm is for the stock to sales comparison, and that is usually a negative indicator.

**Sales Expectations:** The expectations in October for sales dropped sharply to a -36 reading from -16 in September, orders dropped to -38 from -32 in September while sales ‘for the time of year’ plunged to -43 from -20. Each one of these readings is weaker than its 12-month average. Historic standings are even weaker than for the current sales and orders metrics, with sales for a year ago with a 4.9 percentile standing and sales ‘for the time of year’ at an even weaker 1.4 percentile standing, rarely ever weaker. The current vs. the outlook signals are crossed.

**Current Wholesaling:** Worse performance in the current readings while the outlook for the next month is mixed marks the overview of the wholesale trade arm of the distributive sales report. Sales adjusted for the time of year and orders and sales compared to a year ago all deteriorate. Each one of these readings is not only weak month-to-month but each is weaker than its respective 12-month average. And the queue rankings are all in the lower tenth percentile range.

**Wholesaling Expectations:** The outlook shows mixed performance for sales compared to a year ago, improving to -22 in October from -26 in September; orders deteriorated to -41 from -38 in September. Sales ‘for the time of year’ barely ticked weaker in October. Readings are weaker than their respective 12-month averages as well, except for year-ago sales. The percentile standings for the three categories range from a ‘high’ percentile standing at its 14th percentile for sales compared to a year ago, while the other two metrics show rankings that are below their 5th percentiles in their historic queue of values – an extremely weak showing.

**Summing up:** Clearly the survey shows a mixed view of retail and a general worsening as well as a mixed-up picture between current performance vs. what is expected for next month. While there is little consistency in this survey in terms of monthly changes, what is crystal clear is that conditions - no matter where, or when, assessed - are very weak. Perhaps it is reports like this one that are keeping the Bank of England on hold instead of battling inflation with growth looking like it might give way at any moment.

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United Kingdom

U.K. Distributive Trades: Mixed with a Worsened Outlook

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales jumped 20.5% m/m (15.4% y/y) to 800,000 units at an annual rate in August following a 1.8% drop to 664,000 in July (-0.6%, 652,000 initially) and a 7.8% rebound to 676,000 in June (+4.1%, 656,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 650,000 in August. The August m/m jump was the biggest since August 2022; the 800,000 level was the highest since January 2022. New home sales had advanced 54.1% since a low of 519,000 in July 2022. The sales gain coincided with a decline in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.59% in August, the lowest since October 2024, after a decrease to 6.72% in July; it had subsequently fallen to 6.35% in the September 11 week and 6.26% in the September 18 week, according to Freddie Mac.

By region, month-on-month new home sales rose in August across all four major regions. Sales in the Northeast surged 72.2% (40.9% y/y) in August, the largest m/m gain since January 2024, to 31,000, the highest level since February, following three straight m/m falls. Sales in the South jumped 24.7% (21.0% y/y) to 530,000, the highest level since March 2021, after a 0.7% July decline. Sales in the Midwest gained 12.7% (20.3% y/y) to 89,000, reversing an 11.2% July drop and returning to the June level. Sales in the West rose 5.6% (-5.7% y/y) to 150,000, the highest level since April, following a 5.2% July rise and three consecutive m/m decreases. Notably, the South continued to post the highest new home sales level (530,000) among the four regions, while the West was the only region with a year-on-year decline (-5.7% y/y) in August.

The median sales price of a new home rose 4.7% (1.9% y/y) to $413,500 in August following a 2.1% decline to $395,100 in July ($403,800 initially), registering the first m/m rise and the highest since May. The median sales price had fallen 10.2% since its record high of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home jumped 11.7% (12.3% y/y) to $534,100 in August, the highest since July 2022, reversing two successive m/m declines. The average price was 1.3% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 1.4% (+4.0% y/y) in August, the fourth m/m fall in five months, to 490,000, the lowest level since December 2024, on top of a 1.2% decline to 497,000 in July. The latest figure was 15.0% above a low of 426,000 in July 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 7.4 months in August, the lowest level since July 2023, after edging up to 9.0 months in July. The latest reading, while above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023, remained below a high of 10.6 months in July 2022.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market held at 2.7 months in August for the third straight month, after declining m/m to 2.4 months in May. The latest number was well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- August sales +20.5% (+15.4% y/y) to 800,000; largest m/m gain in 3 yrs.; highest level since Jan. '22.
- Sales up m/m in all four regions; sales down y/y only in the West (-5.7% y/y).
- Median sales price at a 3-month-high $413,500; avg. sales price at a 3-year-high $534,100.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale drops to 7.4 mths., lowest since July '23.

U.S. New Home Sales Surge in August Amid Lower Mortgage Rates

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Mortgage applications rose 0.6% (31.1% y/y) in the week ending September 19, following the jump of 29.7% (44.7% y/y) in the week ending September 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged up 0.3% (17.7% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 2.9% (19.1% y/y) in the prior week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 0.8% (42.1% y/y) in the week ending September 19, after jumping 57.7% (69.6% y/y) in the September 12 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined 4bps to 6.51% in the week ending September 19, from 6.55% in the week ending September 12, the lowest since the 6.54% rate reached in the October 4, 2024 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 9bps to 5.87% in the latest week from 5.78% in the September 12 week. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined by 5bps to 6.54% in the week ending September 19 from 6.59% in the September 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 9bps to 5.71% in the latest week from 5.80% in the week of September 12, and close to levels last seen in May 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 60.2% of total applications in the week ending September 19 after rising to 59.8% in the week ending September 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 8.9% in the September 19 week from 12.9% in the September 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined by 5.0% (+4.0% y/y) to $429,600 in the week ending September 19, after a rise of 12.7% (14.2% y/y) to $452,000 in the week ending September 12. The average size of a purchase loan rose 0.7% (-1.4% y/y) to $441,300 in the week of September 19, after rising 3.4% (0.1% y/y) to $438,100 in the September 12 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 8.6% (+9.4% y/y) to $421,800 in the latest week after jumping 22.3% (29.7% y/y) to $461,300 in the September 12 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase loan applications edge up 0.3% w/w, and refinancing loan applications rise 0.8% w/w jump.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans falls to 6.15%, the lowest since September 2024.
- Average loan size decline.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Took a Breather in the September 19 Week

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The IFO climate survey deteriorated in September, falling to -15.6 from -15.1 in August. The wholesale reading showed a deterioration, as did manufacturing and then services. Construction and retailing improved slightly. The climate all-sector ranking is at its 20.7 percentile. Even weaker is the ranking for services at 7.9% and the ranking for manufacturing at 15.1%. Only the construction sector has a ranking above 50%, which places it above its median value. Wholesale and retailing both have rankings in the 21st percentile.

Current conditions in September fell to a diffusion reading of -4.7 from -3.1 in August. The slippage was in manufacturing, wholesaling, and services once again with construction improving slightly and retailing improving to -17.8 from -19.7. The queue standing rankings have the all-sector current index in its 10.8 percentile. The individual sectors all have a higher ranking than that. The lower overall ranking reflects the confluence of weak rankings across sectors that is unusual. Manufacturing has a 13-percentile standing, services have a 12-percentile standing, with retailing at a 41.7 percentile standing and once again construction has a standing above its 50th percentile at the 60.4 percentile mark.

The expectations’ all-sector index falls to -11.9 in September from -8.3 in August; that drop is troubling because this is a forward-looking metric not simply a current assessment. The rank standing for expectations is in its 19.7 percentile, about the same ranking as for climate and above the current all-sector ranking. Retailing logs a 13-percentile standing, services are at a 15-percentile standing, and wholesaling at a 19.9, nearly 20-percentile standing. Manufacturing is at a 26.9 percentile standing with construction at a 43-percentile standing. All the metrics are below their 50th percentile in expectations, marking all of them below their historic medians on data back to 1993.

There is a far-right hand column that also presents ranking statistics. These are rankings since February 2022 since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. For expectations, we see that after the invasion rankings are currently showing a lot of uplift although ominously the services sector, which is the job creating sector has only a 56.8 percentile standing; that compares to the all-sector expectation standing at its 84th percentile. Looking at climate the all-sector index is at 54.5%. That is much stronger than on the full data set back to 1993. The 54.5 percentile standing is supported by strong readings out of construction and wholesaling vs. weak greetings from retailing and services. But these weak rankings are still stronger than for the full sample. Readings for September current conditions on this shorter period remain about the same as for the full sample – except that retailing and services are much weaker.

Overall, the September IFO is disappointing and weaker. The performance of expectations is disturbing. These are going to be developments to watch in the coming months especially to see if expectations make a recovery.

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Germany

IFO Survey Setback in Germany

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The U.S. current account deficit narrowed in Q2 2025 to $251.3 billion from a record $439.8 billion in Q1 (revised from $450.2 billion), according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The series dates back to 1960. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the deficit to narrow to $256.3 billion in Q2. The Q2 deficit was 3.3% of GDP versus 5.9% in Q1.

The narrowing in the overall deficit was due entirely to a narrowing in the goods deficit, to $270.0 billion in Q2 from $465.8 billion in Q1. The Q1 surge in the deficit reflected an 18.6% quarterly jump in imports as businesses attempted to front run expected tariff increases. In contrast, goods imports fell 18.4% q/q in Q2. Imports of nonfood consumer good excluding autos fell 26.2% in Q2 versus a 24.1% q/q jump in Q1. Industrial supplies imports slumped 14.2% q/q in Q2, more than reversing their 9.4% quarterly increase in Q1. Auto imports plunged 10.3% q/q in Q2, their largest quarterly decline since the pandemic shutdown in Q2 2020. Imports of nonmonetary gold plummeted 94% q/q in Q2 after quarterly increases of 169% in last year’s Q4 and 277% in Q1 in anticipation of tariff increases. Goods exports rose 2.1% q/q in Q2 following a 4.1% quarterly gain in Q1. Exports of nonmonetary gold soared 139% q/q in Q1 as the anticipated tariff increases did not materialize.

The services surplus narrowed slightly to $79.6 billion in Q2 from a series high of $80.3 billion in Q1. Service exports edged up 0.7% q/q versus a 0.6% quarterly gain in Q1. Services imports rose 1.3% q/q in Q2 after a 0.2% q/q decline in the previous quarter.

The primary income balance, dominated by income earned and paid on portfolio and direct investment, remained in deficit in Q2, posting a shortfall of $7.7 billion on top of a $2.6 billion deficit in Q1. This balance has been in deficit in only nine quarters since the series began in 1960. Receipts of primary income (earned income) increased $17.8 billion to $376.1 billion, and payments of primary income increased $22.8 billion to $383.8 billion.

The secondary income balance, reflecting transfers into and out of the US, remained in its usual deficit. The shortfall in Q2 widened to $53.2 billion from $51.7 billion in Q1. Receipts of secondary income (current transfers) decreased $2.6 billion to $45.9 billion, reflecting a decrease in private transfers. Payments of secondary income decreased $1.0 billion to $99.2 billion, reflecting a decrease in general government transfers.

Looking briefly at the financial accounts, net financial-account transactions were -$406.9 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents. For assets, second-quarter transactions increased U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets by $220.6 billion. Transactions increased “other investment assets” by $161.8 billion; portfolio investment assets by $45.2 billion; direct investment assets by $13.1 billion; and reserve assets by $0.6 billion. For liabilities, second-quarter transactions increased U.S. liabilities to foreign residents by $653.4 billion. Transactions increased portfolio investment liabilities by $452.5 billion; direct investment liabilities by $120.8 billion; and “other investment liabilities” by $80.1 billion. Net transactions in financial derivatives were $25.8 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net U.S. lending to foreign residents.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver’s **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Goods deficit narrows to smallest since Q4 2023 as goods imports declined 18.4% q/q, reversing the surge in Q1.
- Services surplus narrowed slightly from record high in Q1.
- Balance on primary income remained in deficit, a rare occurrence. Secondary income deficit narrowed marginally.
- Net financial-account transactions were -$406.9 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.

U.S. Current Account Deficit Narrows Markedly in Q2 2025

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The S&P PMIs for September show more backtracking than they show progress, although over three months even in terms of up-to-date monthly data, the trends show uptrends (among 21 calculations of 3-month changes only three show setbacks). Weakening is shown in the service sector in the United States, India, and Australia while in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and in the European Monetary Union (EMU) services sectors were getting stronger. In September, manufacturing weakened in the EMU, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Australia, and India with only the U.S. showing improvement. Japan, a country that usually contributes to the early PMI flash survey, is not included this month in the early S&P release.

**Sequential trends**
Over three months, we see broad strengthening across these reporting countries with Australia showing weakness across all three measures. India shows a composite weakening and a manufacturing weakening and France demonstrates manufacturing weakness. All the other 3-month metrics show strengthening. Using only the hard data and ignoring the up-to-date flash data that remained preliminary, there is still relatively broad strengthening over three months and six months. Over six months, the composite PMIs are strengthening everywhere except in Australia and in the United States with manufacturing improving broadly everywhere except in Australia, India, and in the U.K. Over 12 months, strengthening is also extremely broad with the United Kingdom an exception showing weakening on all three metrics- and with all the other metrics showing strengthening, except for services in Germany (17 out of 21 improve over 12 months).

**Standings**
The queue percentile standing data show a proliferation of readings above the 50-percentile mark placing them above their medians on data back to January 2021; the exceptions are the U.K. with sub-median weakening in all three sectors and in the United States with a sub-par services readings but one that is barely below its median (at 49.1%!). France checks in with sub-median services and composite readings.

**The outlook**
The chart at the top of this report makes a clear positive statement about the ongoing trend improvement. With the Federal Reserve in the U.S. having turned back to an easing cycle for interest rates even with inflation excessive, central banks may be ready to take a risk with stimulus. While inflation remains over target and may even be slightly accelerating, the pace of acceleration is very slight in the U.S. and largely the same conditions prevail globally. The current inflation overshoot faced by most central banks is modest; although in the case of the U.S., it has missed its inflation target for 4 1/2 years in a row-that should be worrisome but the Fed has pressed ahead with a rate cut and seems to favor even more.

The average results for the PMI readings sequentially for 12-months, 6-months and 3-months show steady improvement. The sequential readings are based on only hard data available through August. The more recent monthly data (far right hand column on changes) show June to September improvement for the composite index and for services averages with manufacturing slightly weaker.

The report on the month is slightly weaker, but the trending results are still encouraging. And if there is a new global easing cycle in train, growth will improve further even with the challenge of war remaining in place between Russia and Ukraine.

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Global PMI Weakness in September Despite Trending Progress

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Personal income increased 0.4% m/m (5.1% y/y) in August, the same monthly gain as in July. However, growth of wages and salaries slowed to 0.3% m/m (4.9% y/y) in August from 0.5% m/m in July, a likely indication of slowing labor market conditions. The Action Economic Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% monthly gain in personal income in August. Real personal income (that is, after adjusting for inflation) inched up 0.1% m/m (2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% monthly rise in July. Real disposable income also increased 0.1% m/m (1.9% y/y) in August versus 0.2% m/m in July.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) posted another solid monthly gain, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (5.6% y/y) in August on top of a 0.5% increase in both June and July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.5% monthly gain. After adjusting for inflation, real PCE rose 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y, the fastest annual pace since April) in August after a 0.4% m/m increase in July and a 0.3% m/m gain in June. The July/August average of real PCE stands 2.8% at an annual rate above the Q2 average. As PCE makes up around 2/3 of GDP, the solid July/August figure provides a strong base for Q3 GDP. With PCE growing a little faster than personal income in August, the saving rate slipped to 4.6% from 4.8% in July, which was revised up from 4.4%.

In PCE, real spending on goods increased 0.7% m/m in August, the same monthly advance as in July. Purchases of durable goods rose 0.9% m/m following a 1.8% monthly jump in July. Sales of motor vehicles slipped 0.3% m/m in August following a 2.9% surge in July. Nondurable goods sales picked up in August, rising 0.5% m/m after edging up 0.1% m/m in July. Consumption of services gained 0.2% m/m, the same monthly rise as in each of the preceding three months.

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This report also contained benchmark revisions from the beginning of 2020 to the beginning of 2025. For annual data, these were relatively uneventful. After revision, personal income grew 6.3% saar from 2019 to 2024, up from 6.1% previously. Real disposable income rose 2.6% versus 2.3% previously. PCE increased 6.6% versus 6.5% while real PCE growth was unrevised at 2.9%. In general, in the benchmark revision, the monthly saving rate was revised up 0.4-1.0%-point per month, indicating a more solid financial position for households than previously estimated.

Inflation remained elevated in August, although this was generally expected, but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. The PCE price index increased 0.3% m/m in August, as expected, following a 0.2% monthly gain in July. The y/y rate rose to 2.7%, the fastest rate since February, from 2.6% in July. Goods prices inched up 0.1% m/m (0.9% y/y versus 0.6% y/y in July) with prices of durable goods falling 0.1% m/m and prices of nondurable goods rising 0.2% m/m. Prices of motor vehicles increased 0.7% m/m in August, their largest monthly gain since January. Prices of “other” durable goods soared 2.0% m/m, their largest increase since July 1991. The price of gasoline and other energy goods jumped 1.6% m/m in August, its largest gain since January.

Prices of services increased 0.3% m/m, the same monthly increase as in July. The y/y rate inched up to 3.6% from 3.5% in July. The core PCE price index (that is, excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.2% m/m in August, as expected and the same monthly increase as in July, with the y/y rate unchanged at 2.9%. Prices of services excluding energy and housing, a measure closely watched by the Fed, increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y) in August, up slightly from a 0.3% monthly increase in July.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Personal income increased 0.4% m/m but compensation slowed.
- Real PCE increased 0.3% m/m in August on top of a 0.4% m/m increase in July.
- July/August real PCE up 2.8% annualized from Q2 average, providing a solid base for Q3 GDP growth.
- Headline PCE inflation edged up further to the fastest y/y pace since February.

U.S. Personal Income and Consumption Post Solid Gains in August; Inflation Edges Up

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