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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller January 21, 2022
• Component increases are widespread.
• Coincident indicators rise, despite dip in production.
• Lagging indicators increase minimally.
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.8% (8.5% y/y) during December after increasing 0.7% in November, revised from 1.1%. The latest increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Eight of the index components contributed positively to the December increase including unemployment insurance claims, the ISM orders index, building permits, the leading credit index and the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and Fed funds. Orders for consumer goods & materials, nondefense capital goods orders as well as stock prices also contributed positively. The index of consumer expectations for business & economic conditions fell while average factory sector hours held steady.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y) during December after edging 0.1% higher in November, revised from 0.3%. Nonagricultural employment, personal income less transfers and real manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively but industrial production had a negative influence on the overall index change.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators edged 0.1% higher during December (0.9% y/y), the same as it did in November which was revised from -0.1%. The average duration of unemployment, the manufacturing & trade inventory-to-sales ratio and real C&I loans outstanding contributed positively to the index change. The change in labor costs per unit of output, the six-month change in the services CPI and the consumer installment/personal income ratio contributed negatively. The banks' prime rate held steady.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 7.6 | -3.4 | 1.5 |
Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
Lagging | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -2.1 | 1.1 | 3.2 |