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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller January 19, 2022
• Purchase applications rise again while refinancing applications fall for third week.
• 30-year mortgage interest rate continues to increase.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index rose 2.3% (-37.3% y/y) in the week ended January 14 following a 1.4% increase in the previous week. Purchase applications strengthened 7.9% (-12.2% y/y) after a 2.2% rise in the previous week. Applications for loans to refinance fell 3.1% (-49.2% y/y) after easing 0.1% in the previous week.
The share of applications for refinancing fell to 60.3% in the week ended January 14 from 64.1% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 3.8% from 3.1% in the prior week.
The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 3.77% in the week ended January 14 from 3.65% in the previous week. It was the highest level since March 2020. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage increased to 3.05% from 2.82% while the rate on a Jumbo 30-year mortgage increased to 3.67% from 3.53%. The interest rate on a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage increased to 3.13%, after surging to 3.10% in the previous week.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 1.5% (-38.4% y/y) in the second week of 2022, the same as in the previous week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages soared 24.9% (16.7% y/y) after falling in both of the previous two weeks.
The average size of a mortgage loan increased 2.6% (5.9% y/y) to $346,800 in the week ended January 14 following a 1.0% rise in the previous week. The average size of a loan for purchase jumped 4.2% (9.0% y/y) to $418,500 in the latest week. The average size of a refinanced loan fell 0.9% last week (-2.0% y/y) to $299,500.
This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/14/22 | 01/07/22 | 12/31/21 | Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 2.3 | 1.4 | -5.6 | -37.3 | -8.0 | 63.0 | 32.4 |
Purchase | 7.9 | 2.2 | -10.2 | -12.2 | -2.3 | 11.4 | 6.6 |
Refinancing | -3.1 | -0.1 | -2.5 | -49.2 | -10.7 | 111.0 | 71.1 |
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.77 | 3.65 | 3.47 | 3.00
(Jan. '21) |
3.25 | 3.40 | 4.34 |