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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Charles Steindel December 23, 2021
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in November showed disparate performance across the states. Over the three months ending in June nine states saw growth of more than 3 percent, led by Montana's. 4.9 percent gain (the other eight were scattered across the nation), while six grew less than 1 percent, with Michigan's index plunging more than 2 percent, perhaps reflecting the production difficulties of the auto industry. As seems always to be the case, though, the comparable national index looked completely unrepresentative of the state figures. The national index rose 1.4 percent, but only 10 grew less than that, and only 3 of those (Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Michigan) are especially large.
Over the 12 months ending in November, ten states, led by West Virginia's 25.8 percent surge, saw increase of more than 10 percent. Iowa, Arkansas, and Maine were the only ones with increases of less than 3 percent. The vast majority saw gains greater than the 5.7 percent national estimate.
Every state saw its index increase from October to November, with 12, including California, showing gains of more than 1 percent. West Virginia and Montana had increases of more than 2 percent. Massachusetts was weakest, with a gain barely above 1 percent. Most states outside the Northeast saw record highs in their indexes in November, but Hawaii, Nevada, Alaska, Louisiana, Michigan, and Iowa are also still below their pre-pandemic highs.