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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 19, 2021
• Single-family starts hold steady but multi-family weakens.
• Regional changes are mixed.
• Building permits decline sharply.
Housing starts fell 1.6% during September (+7.4% y/y) to 1.555 million (SAAR) from 1.580 million in August, revised from 1.615 million. Starts have declined from 1.725 million in March. A September increase to 1.620 million starts was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The decline in starts overall in September was due entirely to a 5.0% drop (+38.5% y/y) in multi-family starts to 475,000, reversing half of the August rise. Starts of single-family homes held steady in September at 1.080 million (-2.3% y/y), revised from 1.076 million. Single-family starts fell 2.9% in August and 4.2% in July. Starts last month were 13.9% below the March high.
Building permits fell 7.7% to 1.589 million in September (0.0% y/y) from 1.721 million in August, revised from 1.728 million. Permits to build single-family homes eased 0.9% (-7.1% y/y) to 1.041 million, the fifth decline in six months. Permits to build multi-family homes fell 18.3% (17.1% y/y) in September to 548,000, a decline which reversed all of an outsized August increase.
By region, housing starts fell 27.3% (-4.8% y/y) in the Northeast to 120,000 following a 139.1% August increase. Starts in the South were down 6.3% last month to 835,000 (+9.4% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Offsetting these shortfalls was a 6.9% gain (3.3% y/y) in the Midwest to 217,000 following a 10.9% increase. Starts in the West surged 19.3% (9.7% y/y) to 383,000 after falling 21.7% in August and 7.0% in July.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,555 | 1,580 | 1,562 | 7.4 | 1,397 | 1,292 | 1,247 |
Single-Family | 1,080 | 1,080 | 1,112 | -2.3 | 1,004 | 889 | 871 |
Multi-Family | 475 | 500 | 450 | 38.5 | 393 | 403 | 376 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 120 | 165 | 69 | -4.8 | 113 | 115 | 111 |
Midwest | 217 | 203 | 183 | 3.3 | 193 | 169 | 170 |
South | 835 | 891 | 900 | 9.4 | 743 | 687 | 630 |
West | 383 | 321 | 410 | 9.7 | 347 | 321 | 336 |
Building Permits | 1,589 | 1,721 | 1,630 | 0.0 | 1,479 | 1,385 | 1,329 |