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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 27, 2021
• Transportation orders again are strong.
• Core capital goods orders improve steadily.
• Shipments, order backlogs & inventories continue upward.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods improved 0.8% (29.3% y/y) during June following a 3.2% May increase, revised from 2.3%. A 2.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 2.1% increase (59.4% y/) in transportation equipment orders accounted for much of last month's increase. The gain was driven by a surge in nondefense aircraft orders, but orders for motor vehicles & parts eased 0.3% (+5.4% y/y). Excluding transportation, orders improved 0.3% (19.6% y/y) following a 0.5% May rise, revised from 0.3%.
Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% (18.3% y/y) last month, the same as in May which was revised from -0.1%. Elsewhere in the report, orders were mixed. Orders for primary metals improved 0.4% (35.0% y/y) but orders for fabricated metal products fell 0.8% (+22.4% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders held steady (24.1% y/y) while machinery orders improved 0.6% (20.7% y/y). Computer & electronic product orders improved 1.0% (8.9% y/y) after holding steady in May.
Durable goods shipments rose 1.0% in June (15.2% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% May improvement. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6% (15.7% y/y). Shipments of transportation products overall strengthened 1.1% (12.4% y/y), while shipments excluding transportation products rose 0.9% (16.3% y/y) after a 0.8% gain.
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.9% both m/m and y/y. Order backlogs excluding transportation rose 1.4% (13.3% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.9% (4.5% y/y) in June for the second straight month. Excluding transportation, inventories also rose 0.9% (4.8% y/y) after a 1.2% rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.8 | 3.2 | -0.7 | 29.3 | -13.6 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
Transportation | 2.1 | 10.0 | -6.6 | 59.4 | -35.5 | 13.2 | 1.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 19.6 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 6.9 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 18.3 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 5.9 |
Shipments | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 15.2 | -6.3 | -1.4 | 5.7 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 15.7 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -8.2 | 10.2 | -1.6 |
Inventories | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 4.4 |