Recent Updates

  • Flash PMIs: France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Jul)
  • Canada: Retail Trade (May)
  • Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (May)
  • Bosnia: Srpska GDP By Industry (Q1)
  • Poland: Electricity Production (Jun)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble as Mortgage Rates Rise
by Tom Moeller  July 21, 2021

• Applications for both purchase and refinance decline.

• Fixed-rate loan applications increase.

• Average loan size slips.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index declined 4.0% (-17.7% y/y) in the week ended July 16, following a 16.0% increase in the prior week. Applications to purchase a home fell 6.4% last week (-17.7% y/y) after an 8.3% rise in the prior week. Applications for refinancing fell 2.8% (-17.8% y/y) following a 20.4% jump.

The share of applications for refinancing rose to 64.9% of total applications in the week ended July 16, up from 64.1% the week prior. That is the highest share since the last week of February. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity fell to 3.3% from 3.5% the prior week. It was the lowest share since March.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 3.23% last week from 3.20% in the week prior. The series' low was 2.95% in mid-December, 2020. The effective 15-year rate of 2.54% was down from 2.56% in the week prior. The effective rate for a 30-year Jumbo mortgage loan of 3.22% compared to 2.81% for a 5-year ARM.

Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 3.8% (-18.0% y/y) in the week ended July 16, following a 15.8% rise in the prior week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages declined 9.4% (-9.5% y/y) after a 22.4% rise in the week ended July 16.

The average size of mortgage loans eased 0.6% (+4.5% y/y) to $343,800 in the week ended July 16. The size of loans to purchase rose 0.7% (10.7% y/y) to $401,300. The size of refinanced loans fell 1.2% (+0.6% y/y) to $312,600.

This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) 07/16/21 07/09/21 07/02/21 Y/Y 2020 2019 2018
Total Market Index -4.0 16.0 -1.8 -17.7 63.0 32.4 -10.4
  Purchase -6.4 8.3 -1.1 -17.7 11.4 6.6 2.1
  Refinancing -2.8 20.4 -2.3 -17.8 111.0 71.1 -24.3
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) 3.23 3.20 3.26 3.30

(Jul '20)

3.40 4.34 4.94
close
large image