Recent Updates

  • Japan Regional: Tokyo CPI (Jun)
  • Japan: Nationwide Uniform Prices (Jun)
  • UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer (Jun)
  • New Zealand: International Trade (May)
  • Korea: Economic Sentiment and Business Survey Index (Jun)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall Again
by Tom Moeller  June 2, 2021

• Applications are down one-third so far this year.

• Both purchase & refinancing applications dropped last week.

• Mortgage interest rates are little changed.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index fell 4.0% (+3.0% y/y) in the week ended May 28, following a 4.2% decline in the previous week. Applications for refinancing weakened 4.6% (+6.0% y/y) after falling 7.2% in the previous week. Applications to purchase a home were off 3.1% (-1.6% y/y) after rising 1.7% in the previous week.

The refinance share of mortgage activity eased to 61.3% of total applications in the week ended May 28, from 61.4% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity fell sharply w/w to 3.7% from 4.0% in the previous week. It was the lowest share in five weeks, but remained well above the January 8 low of 1.6%.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rose one basis point to 3.29% and remained above its 2.95% low reached in December. The effective 15-year rate rose three basis points to 2.63%. The effective rate for a 30-year Jumbo mortgage increased six basis points to 3.45%. The rate on a five-year ARM fell to 2.65% from 2.92% and remained below its 4.61% high in October 2018.

The average mortgage loan size eased 0.4% (+5.7% y/y) to $337,200 in the May 28 week. The average size of a loan to purchase a house slipped 0.3% (+19.1% y/y) to $408,300. The average size of a refinanced loan declined 0.4% (-3.4% y/y) to $292,400.

Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 3.7% (+2.7% y/y) after declining 4.3% in the prior week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages dropped 11.7% (+9.0% y/y) after falling 1.5%.

This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) 05/28/21 05/21/21 05/14/21 Y/Y 2020 2019 2018
Total Market Index -4.0 -4.2 1.2 3.0 63.0 32.4 -10.4
  Purchase -3.1 1.7 -4.1 -1.6 11.4 6.6 2.1
  Refinancing -4.6 -7.2 4.0 6.0 111.0 71.1 -24.3
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) 3.29 3.28 3.26 3.5

(May '20)

3.40 4.34 4.94
close
large image