Recent Updates

  • Japan Regional: Tokyo CPI (Jun)
  • Japan: Nationwide Uniform Prices (Jun)
  • UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer (Jun)
  • New Zealand: International Trade (May)
  • Korea: Economic Sentiment and Business Survey Index (Jun)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Reaches a Multi-Year High in April
by Kathleen Stephansen  April 15, 2021

• Strong gains are reported for all components.

• Prices paid and prices received surged in April.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions jumped 9 points to 26.3, up from 17.4 in March, and well surpassing the reading of 19 expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. 39% of the respondents reported improved conditions over the month, while only 12% reported that conditions had worsened, down from 17% last month.

The Empire State data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business conditions in the manufacturing sector in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut. The data was collected between April 2 and April 9. The headline measure is constructed from the answer to a single question on business conditions. Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The ISM-adjusted Empire State Index rose to 60.5 in April from 55.9 in March and from the low of 31.2 in April 2020.

All the Empire State components rose measurably in April.

Strong gains in orders and shipments pushed the new orders component to 26.9 in April from 9.1 in March, and the shipments measure to 25 from 21.1 in March. Unfilled orders surged to 21.2 from 4 in March, while the delivery time jumped to 28.1 from 11.4, pointing to significantly longer delivery times. Inventories were also up, reaching 11.6 up from 8.1 in March. The index for the number of employees jumped to 13.9 from 9.4 in March, with 21% of respondents reporting increased hiring, similar to March's reporting, while 7% reported lower hiring compared to 11% in March. The average workweek rose to 12.7, up from 10.9 in March.

Prices paid rose 10.3 points to 74.7 from 64.4 in March and its highest level since 2008, underscoring sharp input price increases. 75% of the respondents cited higher prices paid. The prices received measure rose 11 points, to 34.9, a record high. The New York Fed reported that selling prices rose at their fasted pace in more than 20 years. The index of business conditions in six months moved to 39.8 in April from 36.4 in March, underscoring optimism in months ahead.

The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Apr Mar Feb Apr'20 2020 2019 2018
General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA) 26.3 17.4 12.1 -78.2 -5.9 4.8 19.7
General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA) 60.5 55.9 54.2 31.2 49.3 51.8 56.4
  New Orders 26.9 9.1 10.8 -66.3 -4.3 3.3 16.4
  Shipments 25.0 21.1 4.0 -68.1 -0.2 10.5 20.3
  Unfilled Orders 21.2 4.0 2.6 -16.8 -7.7 -6.0 3.5
  Delivery Time 28.1 11.4 9.1 11.0 2.7 -0.1 9.1
  Inventories 11.6 8.1 6.5 -9.7 -3.9 -0.9 5.9
  Number of Employees 13.9 9.4 12.1 -55.3 -1.2 5.4 12.3
  Average Employee Workweek 12.7 10.9 9.0 -61.6 -6.9 2.3 7.8
  Prices Paid 74.7 64.4 57.8 5.8 21.5 26.3 45.8
  Prices Received 34.9 24.2 23.4 -8.4 4.8 10.3 19.3
Expectations 6 Months Ahead 39.8 36.4 34.9 7.0 29.7 23.9 35.2
close
large image