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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2021
• Goods trade deficit sets record in 2020.
• Services trade surplus declines to eight-year low.
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $188.5 billion during Q4'20 following a widening to $180.9 billion in Q3'20, revised from $178.5 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $188.0 billion deficit. As a percent of GDP, the deficit grew slightly to 3.5%, it's deepest since Q4'08. During all of 2020, the current account deficit deepened to $647.2 billion from $480.2 billion.
The deficit in goods trade deteriorated to $253.0 billion as exports grew 8.7% (-5.8% y/y) in Q4. All export categories increased. Capital goods exports rose 5.7% (-12.9% y/y) and auto exports increased 4.8% (-3.9% y/y). Exports of nonauto consumer goods increased 8.9% (-1.7% y/y) while foods, feeds & beverage exports grew 15.1% (24.6% y/y). Imports of goods rose 6.0% (4.3% y/y) in Q4. The gain reflected a 12.8% increase (7.8% y/y) in auto imports and a 5.6% rise (4.0% y/y) in capital goods imports. Nonauto consumer goods import improved 6.1% (13.7% y/y) but foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.2% (+6.9% y/y).
The surplus on services trade narrowed to $53.0 billion in Q4. Services exports rose 2.3% (-24.0% y/y) as travel exports strengthened 18.2% (-73.5% y/y). Export charges for the use of intellectual property improved 4.2% (0.1% y/y). Imports of services strengthened 6.3% (-22.4% y/y), reflecting a 70.5% rise (-79.6% y/y) in travel imports in Q4. Imports of charges for the use of intellectual property increased 0.6% (-3.1% y/y).
The surplus on primary income rose to $47.9 billion after increasing sharply in Q3. Investment income receipts rose 3.0% (-12.2% y/y) while investment income payments increased 3.7% (-9.1% y/y). The deficit on secondary income narrowed slightly to $36.4 billion after deteriorating to a record $37.7 billion in Q3.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. Balance of Payments SA | Q4'20 | Q3'20 | Q2'20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -188.5 | -180.9 | -163.2 | -647.2 | -480.2 | -449.7 |
As % of GDP | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -2.2 | -2.2 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -253.0 | -247.5 | -221.5 | -915.6 | -864.3 | -880.3 |
Exports (% Chg) | 8.7 | 23.8 | -28.5 | -13.2 | -1.5 | 7.7 |
Imports (% Chg) | 6.0 | 18.5 | -14.6 | -6.6 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 53.0 | 56.1 | 60.8 | 233.9 | 287.5 | 300.4 |
Exports (% Chg) | 2.3 | 1.6 | -18.3 | -21.0 | 1.6 | 3.9 |
Imports (% Chg) | 6.3 | 7.2 | -24.6 | -22.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 47.9 | 48.2 | 33.3 | 181.6 | 236.3 | 251.2 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -36.4 | -37.7 | -35.9 | -147.1 | -139.7 | -120.9 |