Recent Updates
- US: Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (Q1)
- Canada: Employment Insurance, Intl Transactions in Securities (Apr)
- US: Philly Fed Mfg Business Outlook Survey (Jun)
- Thailand: Unemployment Insurance Claims (May)
- Austria: CPI, HICP (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Little Changed in June
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index edged down to 30.7 in June...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise Unexpectedly
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 37,000 during the week ended June 12 to 412,000...
European Car Registrations Decline for the Second Month in a Row
The plot of vehicle registrations in their raw form - not as percentage changes- shows exactly what is going on...
FOMC: Fed Holds Funds Rate Near Zero; Raises Inflation Projection
The Fed left the target for the Fed funds rate in a range of 0.0% to 0.25% at today's FOMC meeting...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise in May
Housing starts increased 3.6% (50.3% y/y) during May to 1.572 million units...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Fed Is Promoting A Public Perception of Inflation That Is False--- Fed Admits It In New Forecasts
It Is Different This Time, That Is, From The Last Time
Today's Consumer Inflation Cycle Comes With Yesteryear Denial, Problems & Consequences
Vaccines, Capex and China Now Hold the Key
Record Lead-Times For Materials Signal Firms Are Expecting Persistent Inflation
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2020
• Index suggests slower economic growth.
• Component performance is mixed.
Forward economic momentum diminished last month. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index declined during September to 0.27 from 1.11 in August, revised from 0.79. The index level was the lowest of five consecutive readings.
The three-month moving average, which smoothes out the m/m volatility in the index, fell in September to 1.31 from 3.22 in August. During the last 20 years, there has been a 76% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
The Sales, Orders & Inventories series eased negligibly. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours showed lessened growth. The Personal Consumption & Housing series improved modestly last month versus August, but remained low. The Production & Income series turned negative following four straight positive readings. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the components, decreased to 0.51 from 0.71 as 50 out of the 85 components improved.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | 0.27 | 1.11 | 2.61 | -0.33 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Production & Income | -0.24 | 0.31 | 1.40 | -0.26 | -0.10 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.35 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.04 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.50 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| CFNAI 3-Month Moving Average | 1.33 | 3.22 | 4.25 | -0.13 | -- | -- | -- |
| CFNAI Diffusion Index | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.74 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
