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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes in July
by Charles Steindel  August 26, 2020

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes were generally strong in July. 45 states report gains since April (the map on the site, which charts the range of 3-month gains, is now a sea of blue. A few months ago it was solidly red), with New York, Alaska, New Mexico, Massachusetts, and Connecticut the only states with declines over that period. 22 states had gains above 10 percent, with Michigan up nearly 50 percent. Over the year ending in July, Utah, Idaho, Arkansas, and Georgia show gains, while 29 states report declines greater than 10 percent (Massachusetts is down more than 37 percent). While the 12-month results still look bleak, July actually looks somewhat better than the preliminary June report. The June-July readings were mixed, with 13 states reporting declines. Michigan was far and away at the top, with a remarkable 18.3 percent increase, while on the other side New Mexico plunged 9.3 percent.

Broadly speaking, gains have seem to have been strongest in the Rocky Mountain area and, more recently, the industrial Midwest, with the Northeast trailing. As has been the case for some months, the national results—a gain of 5.4 percent over the last 3 months, and a loss of 4.5 percent over the last year--have been inconsistent with the state figures, despite being computed using the same methodology. The state figures would by themselves suggest a larger national gain over for the last 3 months, and a larger loss over the last year.

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