Recent Updates
- US: Advance Retail Sales (Jul)
- Kyrgyz Republic: National Bank Balance Sheet (Jun), IP (Jul)
- US: CEO Confidence Survey (Q3)
- China Regional: IP Value Added, Investment in Fixed Assets (Jul)
- Azerbaijan: Retail Trade Turnover (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen August 24, 2020
• Activity index declines to 1.18 in July.
• Production and income indicators led the gain. Sales, orders and inventories decline.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index decreased to 1.18 in July from an upwardly-revised 5.33 in June (was 4.11). This data suggests a moderation in activity after a bounce in late spring. The three-month moving average, which smooths out volatility in the monthly figures though is less important at the moment because of changing conditions, improved to 3.59 from -2.78. During the last 20 years there has been a 78% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth.
Three out of four of the contributing sectors increased in July led by the production and income indicators, which contributed 1.09 points to the gain. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the monthly series, increased to 0.62 as 56 out of the 85 components improved.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | 1.18 | 5.33 | 4.24 | -0.24 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
Production & Income | 1.09 | 2.21 | 0.82 | -0.16 | -0.10 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.38 | 1.94 | 1.71 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.93 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.31 | 0.77 | 0.78 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
3-Month Moving Average | 3.59 | -2.78 | -6.00 | -0.04 | -- | -- | -- |
Diffusion Index | 0.62 | 0.14 | -0.42 | -0.01 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.13 |