Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Aug-prelim)
- US: Vehicle Miles Driven by State (Jun)
- Bulgaria: Agricultural PPI (Q2) Central Bank Survey (Jul)
- Blue Chip: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 19, 2020
• Current account deficit narrowed to $109.8 billion, led by a decrease in the goods deficit.
• Balance on services and income roughly unchanged.
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $109.8 billion during Q4'19 from an upwardly-revised $125.4 bil. in Q3'19 (was $124.1 bil.). The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $109 bil. deficit. As a percent of GDP, the deficit declined to 2.0% from an unrevised 2.3% in Q3, and a six-and-a-half year high 2.8% in Q4'2018. This is the smallest deficit as a share of GDP since Q3'2017.
The smaller deficit last quarter was the result of a $18.1 bil. improvement in the goods deficit, with the services surplus growing $0.5 bil., and income deteriorating by $3.0 bil. Goods imports fell more than exports, -3.3% versus -0.6% (-5.7% and -1.7% year-on-year respectively). Four out of the seven major categories of goods trade improved, led by $10.0 and $5.9 bil. gains in the consumer goods and industrial supplies balances. Meanwhile, the food deficit increased by $1.7 bil.
Services exports grew 1.3% while imports rose 1.6% (3.5% and 3.7% respectively). Four of the major services categories improved while five deteriorated.
The surplus on primary income increased to a record high $67.3 bil., though as a share of GDP it has hovered around 0.3% since 2012. Despite higher interest rates in the U.S. versus much of the rest of the world, the investment income balance rose to a record $70.8 bil. -- it has also been range-bound around 0.3% of GDP since 2012. The deficit on secondary income increased to a record $37.3 bil.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
US Balance of Payments SA | Q4'19 | Q3'19 | Q2'19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -109.8 | -125.4 | -126.3 | -498.4 | -491.0 | -439.6 |
Deficit % of GDP | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.3 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -202.8 | -220.9 | -224.5 | -866.2 | -887.3 | -805.2 |
Exports (% Chg) | -0.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 7.8 | 6.6 |
Imports (% Chg) | -3.3 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 62.9 | 62.5 | 64.1 | 249.8 | 259.7 | 255.1 |
Exports (% Chg) | 1.3 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.3 |
Imports (% Chg) | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 67.3 | 65.9 | 66.8 | 257.0 | 254.0 | 225.8 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -37.3 | -32.9 | -32.6 | -138.9 | -117.3 | -115.3 |