Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE January 2, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 2,000 in the week ended December 28 to 222,000 (-3.9% y/y) from the prior week's 224,000, which was revised upward by 2,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 220,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 233,250 from 228,500.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended December 21 rose 5,000 to 1.728 million (unchanged y/y) from the prior week's 1.723 million. That figure was revised up by 4,000. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.712 million from 1.704 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2% in the week of December 21. Except for two weeks in September and one week in mid-November, when the rate was at 1.1%, it has been 1.2% since May 2018.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by state. During the week ending December 14, the lowest rates were in Nebraska (0.36%), Florida (0.43%), North Carolina (0.47%), Virginia (0.52%) and Tennessee (0.53%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.02%), Pennsylvania (2.06%), West Virginia (2.13%), New Jersey (2.23%), and Alaska (3.19%). Among the other largest states by population not mentioned above, the rate was 1.10% in Texas, 1.48% in New York and 1.89% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted, thus Alaska has particularly large seasonal swings in insured rates of unemployment.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/28/19 | 12/21/19 | 12/14/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 222 | 224 | 235 | -3.9 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,728 | 1,719 | 0.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |