Recent Updates
- US: Advance Retail Sales (Jul)
- US: CEO Confidence Survey (Q3)
- China Regional: IP Value Added, Investment in Fixed Assets (Jul)
- Azerbaijan: Retail Trade Turnover (Jul)
- Bulgaria: Foreign Trade in Goods (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Winnie Tapasanun October 31, 2019
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending October 26 rose 5,000 to 218,000 (-0.5% y/y) from an upwardly revised 213,000 in the previous week (originally 212,000). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, declined to 214,750, the three-week low, from 215,250; thus, showing no visible disruptions from the tentatively settled GM strike.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 to 1.690 million (2.5% y/y) in the week ending October 19 from 1.683 million in the prior week, upwardly revised from 1.682 million. The 1.690 million level was the highest since August 17. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.686 million, the highest level since August 24, from 1.678 million.
The insured rate of unemployment for the week ending October 19 held at 1.2% for the fourth straight week after holding at the record low 1.1% for two weeks. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 12, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.22%), North Dakota (0.32%), Utah (0.40%), and New Hampshire (0.41%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.43%), California (1.50%), Connecticut (1.53%), New Jersey (1.78%), and Alaska (1.84%). Among the other largest states by population not mentioned above, the rate was 0.93% in Texas, 0.43% in Florida, and 1.13% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/26/19 | 10/19/19 | 10/12/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 218 | 213 | 218 | -0.5 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,690 | 1,683 | 2.5 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |