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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 6, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate eased to 4.6% during June from 4.7% in May, revised from 4.6%. It remained below the 4.8% record logged early this year. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings remained difficult. The hiring rate held steady at 3.8%. It has been below the openings rate since mid-2014. Employers are still reluctant to let people go. The layoff & discharge rate has returned to the record low of 1.1%. Individuals remain ready to find new work. The quits rate in June held steady at a near-record 2.3% where it's been since last year.
The private-sector job openings rate also held steady m/m at 4.9%. It remained below the 5.2% record reached in November. The rate has increased from 4.6% early last year and from the 2.0% average at the recession low in 2009. In professional & business services, the rate held m/m at 5.8% but was below January's 6.5%. In leisure & hospitality, the rate fell sharply to 5.3% and was below December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate held steady at 5.2%, up from 2.6% in 2010. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate rose slightly to 4.8%. The rate declined sharply to 4.4% in the construction sector, down from the record 5.5% in April. In manufacturing, the rate held at the record of 3.8%, up from 3.6% twelve months earlier. The government sector job openings rate improved to a near-record 3.1%, up sharply from the 2009 low of 1.2%.
Job availability fell slightly m/m, but nevertheless remained plentiful. The level of job openings eased a modest 0.5% (-0.6% y/y) to 7.348 million after improving 0.2% to 7.384 million in May. These figures are just below the record high. Private-sector openings fell 1.8% y/y while government sector job openings jumped by one-third y/y.
Hiring activity remained stable. The private-sector hiring rate held at 4.2% and remained below January's expansion high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality improved to 6.8%. In professional & business services, the hiring rate fell to 5.1% and remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate improved m/m to 5.3%, but was well below the expansion high of 6.6% in December 2016. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities held steady at 4.2%, and was down sharply from 4.4% in October. In education & health services, the rate was unchanged at 2.8%, below the earlier high of 3.0%. In manufacturing, the hiring rate fell sharply to 2.5%. This hiring rate was reduced from the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government remained at 1.6%.
Total hiring declined 1.0% (-2.2% y/y) to 5.702 million. Hiring in the private sector fell 2.0% y/y while government sector hiring declined 5.9% y/y, down for the fourth month in the last five.
Individuals were somewhat less inclined to find new work. The overall job separations rate fell to 3.6% and remained below October's expansion high of 3.8%. The private sector separations rate eased to 4.0% and remained below the cycle high of 4.2% reached in July. It was up, however, from the recession low of 3.4%. The separations rate in government held steady at 1.5%.
The total level of separations fell 1.5% y/y. In the private sector, the 1.2% y/y decline reflected an 8.3% y/y fall in professional & business services. In educational and health services, separations fell 4.4% y/y, and separations in trade, transportation & utilities declined 2.7% y/y. In manufacturing, separations declined 7.0% y/y. Working the other way, separations in leisure & hospitality rose 9.5%. The construction sector realized a 10.8% y/y rise in separations. Leisure & hospitality job separations increased 9.5% y/y but separations in the government sector declined 5.6% y/y.
The level of quits rose 2.4% y/y to 3.433 million in June as confidence in finding work remained high. The near-record quits rate of 2.3% was increased sharply from 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate held at 2.5%, about where it's been for over a year, remaining up from 1.4% in the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate fell sharply to 0.8%.
The level of layoffs declined 7.7% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs fell 8.1% y/y, and the layoff rate returned to a record low of 1.1%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs rose 1.0% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate was steady at 0.4%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'18 | Jun'17 | Jun'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
Total (000s) | 7,348 | 7,384 | 7,372 | 7,393 | 6,371 | 5,778 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,702 | 5,760 | 5,991 | 5,833 | 5,652 | 5,288 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,702 | 1,773 | 1,830 | 1,843 | 1,958 | 1,738 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,433 | 3,478 | 3,516 | 3,354 | 3,151 | 2,982 |