Recent Updates
- US: Advance Retail Sales (Jul)
- Kyrgyz Republic: National Bank Balance Sheet (Jun), IP (Jul)
- US: CEO Confidence Survey (Q3)
- China Regional: IP Value Added, Investment in Fixed Assets (Jul)
- Azerbaijan: Retail Trade Turnover (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 5, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index rose 1.5% (12.7% y/y) during the week ending May 31 after the prior week's 3.3% decline. The rise reflected a 6.4% increase (32.6% y/y) in applications to refinance an existing loan, which also reversed the prior week's decline. Applications to purchase a home fell 2.4% (+0.1% y/y) after declining in five of the prior six weeks.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell w/w to 3.74%, compared to a high of 4.71% early in November 2018. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined to 4.33% and remained below the November high of 5.33%. The rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage fell to 4.16%, down from its October peak of 5.09%. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage fell to 3.69% and reversed the prior week's increase.
The average mortgage loan size rose w/w to $340,800 (12.4% y/y) but remained below the record of $381,700 in late-March. For purchases, the average loan size eased to $330,100 (+4.2% y/y). The average loan refinancing size rose to $335,600 (27.7% y/y). These series date back to 1990.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 12.7% y/y, while adjustable rate loan applications gained 12.4% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 5/31/2019 | 5/24/2019 | 5/17/2019 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 1.5 | -3.3 | 2.4 | 12.7 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | -2.4 | -1.4 | -2.0 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | 6.4 | -6.0 | 8.3 | 32.6 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.74 | 3.83 | 3.88 | 4.37 (May '18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |