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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 15, 2019
Total retail sales slipped 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March increase, revised from 1.6%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after rising 1.3%. A 0.7% gain had been expected.
Last month, a 1.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts led the overall sales weakness, after a 3.2% March rise. This compared to a 6.1% decline in unit sales of motor vehicles during April.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales were unchanged during April (3.4% y/y) after a 1.1% increase.
Weakness in retail sales was pervasive. Sales of building materials & garden equipment stores were off 1.9% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Electronics & appliance store sales declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the prior month's rise. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after a 2.1% jump. Sales via the internet also slipped 0.2% (+9.0% y/y) following three straight months of strong increase. Offsetting these declines was a 0.2% gain (2.7% y/y) in general merchandise store sales which added to a 0.7% rise. Sales by sporting goods, hobby, book & music retailers also improved 0.2% (-8.5% y/y) after a 0.3% decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 1.8% (4.9% y/y) with higher prices, strong for the third straight month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% strengthening. Health & personal care product store sales eased 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
Retail Sales | -0.2 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |