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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 4, 2019
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise.
Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% decline. Orders for defense and civilian aircraft recovered following sharp October declines. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y). Strength in orders for metals was offset by a decline in machinery.
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 1.9% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 9.3% decline in shipments from petroleum refineries led the decline (+5.2% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (3.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 1.2% (+6.9% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.7% (6.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments rose 1.0% (5.6% y/y) but machinery shipments slipped 0.4% (+2.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) but total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery were little changed (3.0% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.9% (8.7% y/y) while transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories fell 8.4% (+1.5% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) and paper product inventories improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.6 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
