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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen December 6, 2018
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector was revised up to a 2.3% gain at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3'18 (1.3% year-over-year), from the previously reported 2.2% increase. In Q2 productivity growth remained at a 3.0% rate. The consensus from the Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a Q3 gain of 2.3%. Third quarter output and hours worked were unrevised at 4.1% (3.7% y/y) and 1.8% (2.3% y/y) respectively.
Unit labor costs were revised substantially lower to 0.9% in Q3 from 1.2% and -2.8% in Q2 (was -1.0%). These changes decreased the third quarter year-on-year gain to 1.2% from 1.5%. A 1.0% quarterly pace in Q3 had been expected by the Action Economics survey. These revisions were predominantly the result of slower compensation growth for both quarters: 3.1% (2.2% y/y) in Q3 and flat in Q2.
In the manufacturing sector, productivity was revised meaningfully higher to a 1.0% annualized gain Q3 (was 0.5%) and 1.4% y/y. The Q2 reading was unchanged at 1.2%. Output increased at an upwardly revised 4.1% pace in Q3 (3.6% y/y), while hours worked grew a slightly faster 3.1% (2.1% y/y).
Unit labor costs in the factory sector declined at a 1.2% rate in Q3 (-1.2% y/y), following a 6.1% drop. Compensation per hour edged down 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after falling 5.0%.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q3'18 | Q2'18 | Q1'18 | Q3'18 Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
Compensation per Hour | 3.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
Unit Labor Costs | 0.9 | -2.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
Compensation per Hour | -0.2 | -5.0 | 4.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
Unit Labor Costs | -1.2 | -6.1 | 5.5 | -1.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 4.1 |