Recent Updates
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Jun), Adv Retail Sales (Jul)
- Kyrgyz Republic: National Bank Balance Sheet (Jun), IP (Jul)
- US: CEO Confidence Survey (Q3)
- China Regional: IP Value Added, Investment in Fixed Assets (Jul)
- Azerbaijan: Retail Trade Turnover (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE September 20, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15 from 204,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. This was the smallest number of initial claims since November 15, 1969, when there were 197,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey again expected a rise to 210,000 applications. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 205,750. It is possible that claims were reduced somewhat because Hurricane Florence interrupted filing in the affected states, where Labor Department offices might have been closed or people couldn't get to them. If that is the case, a rebound might well follow.
In the week ending September 8, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 55,000 to 1.645 million (-16.3% y/y) from 1.700 million a week earlier, revised from 1.696 million. It was the lowest level since August 4, 1973, when there were 1.633 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.692 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended September 1, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.32%), North Dakota (0.36%), North Carolina (0.44%) and Indiana (0.46%). The highest rates were in California (1.64%), Alaska (1.59%), Pennsylvania (1.70%), Connecticut (1.87%) and New Jersey (2.38%). Among the largest states by population, besides California, the rate was 1.48% in New York, 0.92% in Texas and 0.49% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/15/18 | 09/08/18 | 09/01/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 201 | 204 | 205 | -21.2 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,645 | 1,700 | -16.3 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |