Recent Updates
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Jun), Adv Retail Sales (Jul)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Jun)
- Kyrgyz Republic: National Bank Balance Sheet (Jun), IP (Jul)
- US: CEO Confidence Survey (Q3)
- China Regional: IP Value Added, Investment in Fixed Assets (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Starts Drop to 1.446 Mil. in July
Toal housing starts fell 9.6% m/m (-8.1% y/y) to a lower-than-expected 1.446 million...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline While the Cost of Crude Oil Rises
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.94 per gallon (+24.1% y/y) last week...
ZEW Experts Still See Depressed Conditions and Harbor Weak Expectations
the current situation in the eyes of the ZEW experts strengthened in August in the U.S. and the U.K. but...
U.S. Home Builder Index Extends Downward Trend
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index declined 10.9% during August (-34.7% y/y) to 49...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 29, 2018
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of existing homes declined 0.7% during July following a 1.0% June rise, revised from 0.9%. Sales fell to an index level of 106.2 (2001=100) and remained down 2.3% y/y. Sales were 6.0% below the peak in April of 2016.
Sales were mixed across the nation last month. Pending home sales in the South were off 1.7% (-0.9% y/y), the third decline in the last four months. Pending home sales in the West fell 0.9% last month (-5.8% y/y) and reversed the June rise. Working the other way last month were pending home sales in the Northeast which rose 1.0% (-2.3% y/y) to the highest level since December. Also improving in July by 0.3% (-1.5% y/y) were pending home sales in the Midwest, up 4.1% versus the low six months earlier.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 106.2 | 107.0 | 105.9 | -2.3 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
Northeast | 94.6 | 93.7 | 92.4 | -2.3 | 97.2 | 96.4 | 90.8 |
Midwest | 102.2 | 101.9 | 101.4 | -1.5 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 107.1 |
South | 122.1 | 124.2 | 122.9 | -0.9 | 123.8 | 122.9 | 123.1 |
West | 94.7 | 95.6 | 94.7 | -5.8 | 99.6 | 102.4 | 102.2 |