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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 15, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.1% (4.0% y/y) during June following two months of 0.3% increase. Total business sales increased 0.3% (8.2% y/y), following a 1.3% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.35 from 1.34. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories increased 0.1% (1.7% y/y) in June, following two months of 0.4% increase. Auto inventories eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after a 0.9% rise. Non-auto retail inventories increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. General merchandise inventories fell 0.3% (-0.5% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. In the department store sector, inventories declined 0.5% (-3.1% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Building materials inventories surged 1.5% (7.6% y/y) after a 0.5% increase, while clothing store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.7% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 0.9% (-1.9% y/y), the fifth m/m decline this year. As reported last week, wholesale inventories edged 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Factory sector inventories also rose 0.1% (5.1% y/y) following a 0.2% gain.
Retail sales held steady in June (5.8% y/y) with non-auto sales easing slightly (+6.5% y/y) after a 1.2% jump. Wholesale sector sales slipped 0.1% (+10.2% y/y) after improving 2.1%. Shipments from the factory sector surged 1.0% (8.4% y/y) following a 0.6% rise.
The overall business inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio rose to 1.35. In the retail sector, the ratio held steady at 1.43 in June, down sharply from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio was steady at 1.20, its lowest level since early-2012. The ratio peaked at 1.29 early in 2016. The wholesale sector I/S ratio was stable at 1.25, its lowest level since November 2014. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio declined to 1.33, its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 8.2 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |