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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2015
Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% during November (2.9% y/y) following no change in October, revised from 0.1%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Spending also rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in constant dollars as prices remained unchanged. A 1.4% increase (6.3% y/y) in real home furnishing & appliances purchases led last month's gain as it added to a 0.3% rise. Recreational goods buying was notably strong and rose 1.0% (10.1% y/y) on the heels of a 1.6% jump. Real motor vehicle purchases gained 1.0% (-0.2% y/y), rebounding from a 2.2% fall. Nondurable goods sales also strengthened 0.9% in constant dollars (3.0% y/y) after two months of slight decline. Real purchases at gasoline filling stations were notably firm, rising 1.6% (2.4% y) and rebounding from a 2.1% shortfall. Clothing spending strengthened 1.1% in real terms (2.1% y/y), food & beverage buying also gained 1.1% (1.1% y/y) but "other" purchases improved a lesser 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Real spending on services was little-changed (2.0%) for a second consecutive month. Real health care outlays rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y), the smallest rise since April, but recreation services spending fell 1.1% (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.
Personal income improved 0.3% (4.4% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected. It was powered by a 0.5% gain (4.5% y/y) in wage & salaries which followed a 0.6% rise. Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Transfer receipts rose 0.3% (5.2% y/y), driven by a 2.2% jump (13.4% y/y) in payments to veterans. Medicare receipts rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for a second month. Jobless insurance benefits recovered 0.9% (0.9% y/y) after declines in three of the prior four months. Proprietors earnings ticked 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after two 0.4% increases. Dividend earnings declined 0.8% (+3.2% y/y) while interest earnings fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) for the second straight month.
Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y), the smallest rise since June.
The personal savings rate eased to 5.5% from an unrevised 5.6%. The rate remained nearly the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 23.3% during the last twelve months.
The chain price index held steady (0.4% y/y) after three months of little change. The index change was held back by a 0.3% fall (-1.7% y/y) in durable goods prices and food prices moved 0.2% lower (+0.3% y/y) after four straight 0.2% increases. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.4% (-3.1% y/y) as energy prices declined 1.4% (-15.8% y/y). Services prices improved 0.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y) after having been unchanged.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 4.5 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 5.1 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
Personal Saving Rate | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.6 (Nov. '14) |
4.8 | 4.8 | 7.6 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | -1.4 | 3.1 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |