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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 25.5 in December, the lowest level since August. The reading was well below the year-ago level of 47.5, and the full-year number of 31.5 was down from 39.1 in 2014. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
A lower inventory figure of 0.0 provided the largest drag on December activity. A shorter workweek and fewer capital expenditures also weighed on business.
Offsetting much of this reduction was improvement in new and unfilled orders Revenues and full-time permanent employment also improved along with pricing power.
Expected general activity at the company level in the region rose following declines in the prior two months. Overall expected activity deteriorated, however, to the lowest level since June 2013.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'14 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Activity - Company | 25.5 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 47.5 | 31.5 | 39.1 | 30.0 |
New Orders | 19.6 | 15.8 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 21.7 | 28.0 | 20.2 |
Sales or Revenue | 25.5 | 22.8 | 17.5 | 32.5 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 27.2 |
Inventories | 0.0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | -2.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 17.6 | 10.5 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 15.6 | 17.4 | 19.0 |
Prices Paid | 21.6 | 19.3 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.6 |
Expected General Activity - Company | 52.9 | 50.9 | 52.5 | 70.0 | 54.3 | 69.4 | 47.8 |