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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 18, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that manufacturing sector business activity in the region deteriorated sharply during December, and completely reversed the improvement during the prior three months. The Composite Index of 10th District factory sector activity fell to -9, the weakest figure since August, although the quarterly measures continued strengthening after a Q2 low. Deterioration in the monthly readings was broad-based, notably for new orders and employment. The shipments and inventories figures also deteriorated markedly this month, as did inventories. New exports weakened m/m and pricing power remained negative to roughly the same degree throughout the year.
The Composite Index reflecting 6-month expectations remained sharply improved since its June low. Strengthening was notable for shipments and new orders. The employment measure rose, but to a lesser extent. Expected production, capital expenditures and exports also gained but expectations for finished goods prices remained depressed.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec '14 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | -9 | 1 | -1 | 8 | -5 | 6 | 0 |
New Orders Volume | -5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 | 1 |
Number of Employees | -17 | -8 | -3 | 8 | -10 | 5 | -2 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | -7 | -9 | -3 | 1 | -5 | 5 | 4 |
Expected Conditions in Six Months | 7 | 8 | -1 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 10 |
New Orders Volume | 16 | 18 | 7 | 23 | 11 | 26 | 18 |
Number of Employees | 7 | 13 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 18 | 9 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | -1 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 9 | 26 | 24 |