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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2015
Import prices declined 0.4% during November following a 0.3% October drop, revised from -0.5%. A 0.7% fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Petroleum prices fell 2.5% (-44.5% y/y) after a 0.4% rise, revised from a 2.1% decline. Nonpetroleum import prices fell 0.3% (-3.4% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% decline. These prices have not risen m/m since March of last year. A 1.0% decline (-11.2% y/y) in prices of nonoil supplies & materials led the way lower followed by a 0.5% drop (-5.0% y/y) in food & beverage costs. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) as did prices for automotive vehicles & sparts. Nonauto consumer goods prices remained unchanged (-0.7% y/y) for a second straight month.
Export prices fell 0.6% (-6.3% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% decline. Expectations had been for a 0.2% shortfall. A 1.6% decline (-15.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials prices led the way lower. This drop reflected lower fuels & building materials costs, without which prices fell 0.4% (-8.4% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverages prices were off 0.9% (-13.0% y/y) and capital goods costs eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y). Automotive vehicles & parts prices fell 0.2% (-0.5% y/y), but nonauto consumer goods prices improved 0.1% (-2.1% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports - All Commodities | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -9.4 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0.3 |
Petroleum | -2.5 | 0.4 | -9.4 | -44.5 | -5.6 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
Nonpetroleum | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -3.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
Exports - All Commodities | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
Agricultural | -1.1 | 0.1 | -1.4 | -12.8 | -2.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Nonagricultural | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -5.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 |