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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 1, 2015
Activity in the manufacturing sector declined last month according the Institute for Supply Management. Its Composite Index of factory sector activity fell to 48.6 during November from an unrevised October reading of 50.1. This was the lowest level since June 2009, the final month of the last recession. The decline compared to rough stability at 50.4 called for in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Declines in most component series were evident. The new orders figure fell to 48.9, the lowest level since March 2009 while the production reading also moved below break-even to 49.2. These declines reflected an effort to reduce inventories as the index fell to 48.0, down sharply for the second straight month.
These declines didn't keep manufactures from raising employment. The jobs index rose to 51.3, its highest level since July. During the last ten years there has been an 88% percent correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The supplier delivery index also edged up to 50.6, indicating the slowest delivery speeds in three months.
Weaker activity readings led to reduced pricing power. The prices index fell to 35.5, is lowest level since April 2009. Thirty percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying lower prices while just 1% reported them higher.
The export order index held steady m/m at 47.5, but was down from the 2011 high of 62.5. The import index nudged up to 49.0 and the order backlog index gained to 43.0.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes. A reading above 50 represents growth in factory sector activity. They can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 48.6 | 50.1 | 50.2 | 57.6 | 55.7 | 53.8 | 51.7 |
New Orders | 48.9 | 52.9 | 50.1 | 62.1 | 59.0 | 56.9 | 52.9 |
Production | 49.2 | 52.9 | 51.8 | 62.6 | 59.2 | 57.5 | 53.7 |
Employment | 51.3 | 47.6 | 50.5 | 54.6 | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.8 |
Supplier Deliveries | 50.6 | 50.4 | 50.2 | 57.0 | 55.0 | 51.9 | 50.0 |
Inventories | 43.0 | 46.5 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 48.2 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 35.5 | 39.0 | 38.0 | 44.5 | 55.6 | 53.8 | 53.2 |