Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 25, 2015
Real economic activity grew at a revised 3.9% annual rate in the second quarter (2.7% y/y) versus last month's estimate of 3.7% and the initial estimate of a 2.3% rise. This compares to a 0.6% Q1 advance, which was restrained by severe winter weather and West coast port closings. The latest estimate outpaced consensus expectations for an unchanged 3.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Domestic final sales grew at a 3.7% rate, revised from 3.2%. Consumer spending advanced at a 3.6% pace, revised from 3.1%. The revision reflected a quickened 2.7% advance (3.0% y/y) in services purchases due to strength in food services & accommodations, transportation and health care. Motor vehicle purchases improved at a lessened 9.7% rate. Furnishings & household equipment buying grew at an unrevised 4.6% rate. Apparel spending rose at a little-revised 6.6% rate. Food & beverage purchases grew 2.7% following declines in each of the prior four quarters.
Business fixed investment growth was raised to 4.1% from 3.2%. Growth in structures investment was doubled to 6.3%. It recovered from a 7.4% Q1 decline. Growth in equipment spending was raised to 0.3% from -0.4%. Declines in information processing investment and transportation equipment spending were sustained; and investment in intellectual property products grew a little-changed 8.3%. Spending on research and development jumped 12.5%.
Residential fixed investment growth was raised to 9.4% from 7.8%, continuing a stretch of five quarters of firm gain.
Government spending growth was unrevised at 2.6%. State & local spending increased 4.3% (1.4% y/y), rebounding after a 0.8% shortfall. Federal government purchases were unchanged (-3.3% y/y) after a 1.1% rise, held back by a 0.5% decline (+1.3% y/y) in nondefense purchases. Defense spending grew 0.3% (-1.3% y/y).
The contribution to GDP growth from inventory investment was left the same at 0.2 percentage points. That was down from a 0.9 point Q1 addition. Foreign trade added an unchanged 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth as exports grew 5.1% and outpaced the 3.0% gain in imports.
After-tax corporate profits grew 6.3% (8.5% y/y), up from 5.1% reported initially and the strongest gain since Q1 2012. Financial industry profits grew 9.6% (-1.7% y/y) and nonfinancial sector earnings improved 1.9% (1.8% y/y). Earnings from the rest of the world rose 2.9% (-0.9% y/y), revised from a moderate decline.
The GDP price index advanced at an unrevised 2.1% rate. The personal consumption price index rose 2.2% and the index less food & energy increased 1.9%. The business fixed investment price index fell at a 1.0% rate (+0.1% y/y) while the residential price index declined 0.8% (+2.5% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy is the title of yesterday's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen and it can be found here.
Chained 2009 $ (%, AR) | Q2'15 (3rd Estimate) | Q2'15 (2nd Estimate) | Q2'15 (Initial Estimate) | Q1'15 | Q4'14 | Q2 Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
Inventory Effect | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Final Sales | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Foreign Trade Effect | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Domestic Final Sales | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
Demand Components | |||||||||
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Business Fixed Investment | 4.1 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
Residential Investment | 9.4 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 13.5 |
Government Spending | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 0.7 | -0.6 | -2.9 | -1.9 |
Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||||
GDP | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Less Food/Energy | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |