New orders for durable goods fell 2.0% (-1.9% y/y) during August following a 1.9% July increase, revised from 2.0%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in real GDP.

Last month's decline reflected a 5.8% drop in transportation sector orders, paced by a 5.9% falloff (-24.9% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders. Motor vehicle & parts orders also declined 1.6% (+10.8% y/y) after a 4.9% rise. Orders excluding the transportation sector were little-changed following a 0.4% increase.

Orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.6% (-6.4% y/y) while fabricated metals bookings fell 1.8% (-4.4% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+5.6% y/y). Offsetting these declines was a 1.0% improvement (-6.7% y/y) in machinery orders and a 0.1% uptick (-11.7% y/y) in primary metals.

Nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% (-7.5% y/y) after a 0.7% increase but excluding aircraft, they eased just 0.2% (-4.0% y/y). Defense capital goods orders fell by one-quarter (+3.9% y/y) and reversed July's increase.

Shipments of durable goods remained roughly unchanged (1.1% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Transportation equipment shipments eased 0.1% (+9.3% y/y) following strength during the prior two months. Shipments excluding transportation were remained unchanged (-2.4% y/y) for a second straight month. Unfilled orders fell 0.2% (-1.2% y/y) and reversed July's improvement. Backlogs outside of transportation also were little-changed (-0.4% y/y). Inventories of durable goods held steady (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. Inventories less transportation fell 0.3% (+0.8% y/y), off for the third month in four.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.