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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone September 9, 2015
The job openings rate rose to 3.9% during July, a new high, from 3.6% in June and 3.3% a year ago. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The hires rate, however, dropped back to 3.5% from June's 3.7% and 3.6% in July 2014. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The actual number of job openings rose 21.7% y/y to 5.753 million. As seen in the rates, the apparent strength in job openings was not matched by firms' ability to fill positions, as hiring fell 3.8% from June to July, when it numbered 4.983 million, the lowest since August 2014 and 0.4% below a year ago. Thus, the larger number of openings partly reflects the reduced amount of hiring.
The private-sector job openings rate also rose, reaching 4.2% in July from 3.9% in June. Several industry sectors had larger openings rates. That in manufacturing was up from 2.5% in June to 2.7%, that in trade, transportation and utilities increased from 3.4% to 3.6%, and the education and health sector edged up from 4.4% to 4.5%. Larger increases came in leisure and hospitality, up to 4.8% from 4.4%, and professional and business services to 6.3% from 5.8%. Only the construction sector did not see a rise, as that openings rate held at June's 2.1%. The job openings rate in the government sector returned to 2.2% in July after June's rate was revised down to 2.1%.
The private sector hires rate fell to 3.9% in July from June's 4.0%, and most sectors had declines. Construction was down to 4.7% from 5.1%, trade, transportation and utilities to 4.2% from 4.3%, and education and health to 2.6% from 2.7%. The largest decline was in professional and business services, which dropped to 4.8% from 5.3%; this decline may explain the sizable rise in that sector's openings rate. Only the leisure and hospitality group had an increase, as its hiring rate moved to 6.2% in July from 6.1% in June. The hiring rate in government was steady at 1.5% for a fifth consecutive month.
The number of private sector hires fell back by 4.1% in July from June and was 1.4% below July 2014. Year-to-year comparisons show the largest drops in construction, where hiring fell 22.1%, and in professional and business services, down 5.2%. Leisure and hospitality, by contrast, saw a 7.2% y/y gain, and trade, transportation and utilities had a 2.5% y/y increase. Hiring in manufacturing was nearly steady with a 0.4% rise and that in education and health a 0.2% uptick. Government hiring was up 15.1%.
The total job separations rate fell back to 3.3% in July from 3.5% and the actual number of separations was up a mere 0.1% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate also edged down, to 3.7% from 3.8% and the government sector's rate was steady at 1.4%. The layoff & discharge rate fell to 1.1% from June's 1.3%. The rate in the private sector was 1.3%, down from 1.4%; its peak during the recession was 2.3%. The rate in government was 0.4% for a third consecutive month.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,753 | 5,323 | 5,357 | 21.7% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
Hires, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 42.2 | 39.8 | 38.8 |
Total (000s) | 4,983 | 5,182 | 5,060 | -0.4% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.5 |
Total (000s) | 1,609 | 1,779 | 1,660 | -11.9 | 2.4% | -4.9% | 1.1% |