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Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
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The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Carol Stone September 8, 2015
Consumer credit outstanding increased $19.1 billion during July after rising $27.0 billion in June, which was revised noticeably from $20.7 billion reported before. July expectations were for an $18.0 billion increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Both revolving and nonrevolving credit contributed to the slower July result. During the last ten years, there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Revolving consumer credit rose $4.3 billion in July (3.9% y/y), following June's upwardly revised $7.5 billion gain. Depository institution balances (82% of the total) increased 5.4% y/y. Finance company lending (6.5% of the total) declined 7.1% y/y and borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 6.2% y/y. Nonfinancial business credit (3% of the total) was up 0.2% y/y and securitized credit card balances (3% of the total) fell 0.9% y/y.
Nonrevolving credit borrowing in July was $14.8 billion (7.9% y/y), less than June's $19.5 billion. Federal government loans, 35.5% of the total, increased 13.4% y/y. Finance company balances (25% of the total) improved 2.2% y/y. Borrowing at banks (also 25% of the total) rose 4.6% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 15.3% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (2% of the total) declined 11.9% y/y, and nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
The upward revision to June's borrowing was reflected in second quarter results for student loan balances, which were up 7.2% y/y instead of 6.7% y/y reported before and borrowing for motor vehicle purchases was mildly stronger, up 8.6% versus the earlier 8.3% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $19.1 bil. | $27.0 bil. | $19.7 bil. | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
Revolving | 4.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
Nonrevolving | 14.8 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 8.5 |