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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its August Composite index of factory sector activity declined to -15.8, its weakest reading in three months. The production component was near break-even, up sharply from three months ago. The growth rate of new orders, however, reversed most of its July improvement. The employment reading remained slightly negative, where it's averaged since the beginning of the year. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Wages & benefits rose to the highest level since January but prices received declined sharply to the lowest point since 2009.
The six-months ahead reading for factory sector activity reversed three months of improvement as the production outlook fell to a six-month low. The expected new orders growth rate similarly deteriorated along with shipments. The expected employment reading retrenched as wage & benefit expectations remained near the expansion low.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA, Percent Balance) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago | -15.8 | -4.6 | -7.0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 2.2 | -0.6 |
Production | -0.8 | -1.9 | -6.5 | 7.4 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 8.7 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | -14.0 | -5.2 | -16.5 | -7.6 | 4.7 | 0.1 | -2.8 |
Number of Employees | -1.4 | -3.3 | -1.2 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 11.8 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | -15.7 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
Business Activity in Six Months | 3.4 | 18.8 | 8.1 | 19.0 | 17.4 | 11.0 | 7.6 |
Production | 28.0 | 37.4 | 35.2 | 44.3 | 42.7 | 37.1 | 32.4 |
Future New Orders Growth Rate | 18.6 | 29.7 | 21.1 | 29.8 | 31.5 | 25.0 | 19.5 |
Number of Employees | 11.4 | 17.4 | 16.9 | 28.7 | 28.6 | 23.1 | 19.1 |
Wages & Benefits | 32.4 | 31.2 | 31.0 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 38.2 | 34.2 |