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The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
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Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
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Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller August 28, 2015
Personal income improved 0.4% during July (4.3% y/y) for the fourth straight month. These remain the quickest increases since November and the latest figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries increased 0.5% (4.2% y/y), also the firmest rise since November. Rental income firmed 0.7% (8.6% y/y) following even stronger gains during the prior three months. Proprietors income improved 0.8% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Transfer payments rose 0.5% (5.1% y/y) as Medicaid payments jumped 1.5% (9.0% y/y). Unemployment insurance receipts fell 0.3% (-2.9% y/y). Interest income improved 0.1% (2.9% y/y) but dividend receipts eased slightly (+4.9% y/y).
Disposable personal income increased 0.5% (3.6% y/y) after three months of 0.4% improvement. Adjusted for price changes, take-home pay rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y), the strongest rise in six months.
Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.3%, the same as in June which was revised from 0.2%. The increase missed expectations for a 0.4% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending rose 0.2% overall (3.2% y/y). Real durable goods purchases gained 1.3% (6.2% y/y) and reflected a 2.6% increase (5.7% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases. Durable household equipment spending gained 1.0% (6.5% y/y) but clothing & footwear purchases rose just 0.2% (3.9% y/y). Real gasoline purchases eased 0.5% (+3.5% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Constant dollar services purchases notched 0.1% higher (2.8% y/y), the weakest rise in the last four months.
The personal savings rate rose to 4.9% from 4.7%. The rate nevertheless was below a February high of 5.4%. Personal saving increased 3.8% during the last twelve months.
The chain price index nudged 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y), the weakest rise in three months. Energy prices gained 0.1% (-15.7% y/y), after two months of strong increase, while food prices improved 0.2% (0.9% y/y), about the same as during June. Durable goods prices eased 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) but nondurable goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-3.0% y/y). Services prices improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y) after four straight months of 0.2% increase. The price index excluding food & energy notched 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y) for the fourth straight month.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 4.5 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 5.1 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
Personal Saving Rate | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 (Jul '14) |
4.8 | 4.8 | 7.6 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | -1.4 | 3.1 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |