Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 4, 2015
Gasoline prices at the pump fell to an average $2.69 per gallon (-23.5% y/y) last week, the lowest level since mid-May. This summer's high in prices was $2.84 per gallon reached in mid-June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price fell 6 cents to $2.57 per gallon. Spot market gasoline prices eased w/w to $1.82 per gallon (-34.4% y/y).
WTI crude oil costs continued lower last week to an average $47.91 per barrel (-53.1% y/y), down from June's high of $60.07. Yesterday, prices declined further to $45.17 per barrel. These prices compare to a June 2014 high of $107.95. The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver Analytics, declined last week to $44.76 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices fell w/w to $52.89 per barrel and were $49.58 yesterday.
Natural gas prices eased last week to $2.85 per mmbtu (-24.4% y/y) and were $2.75 yesterday.
Gasoline demand rose 6.2% y/y while demand for all petroleum products rose 3.8% y/y. Gasoline inventories declined 1.1% y/y and inventories of all crude oil but all petroleum products inventories increased 8.2% y/y. Crude oil production (input to refineries) grew 1.6% y/y during the last four weeks, less than half the growth logged in June.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
The Effect of Weather on First-Quarter GDP from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
Weekly Energy Prices | 08/03/15 | 07/27/15 | 07/20/15 | Y/Y% | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.69 | 2.75 | 2.80 | -23.5 | 2.30 | 3.33 | 3.30 |
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 47.91 | 49.26 | 51.69 | -53.1 | 93.64 | 97.96 | 94.20 |
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.85 | 2.87 | 2.90 | -24.4 | 4.37 | 3.73 | 2.7 |