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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller August 3, 2015
The Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 52.7 during July following unrevised gains to 53.5 and 52.8 during the prior two months. Improvement to 53.8 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The employment index declined to 52.7 and reversed most its June gain. It nevertheless remained higher than an April low of 48.3. During the last ten years, there has been an 89% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The inventories reading also fell sharply to a three-month low. The production series improved notably and new orders edged higher. The supplier deliveries index remained stable, continuing to indicate the quickest product delivery speeds since April 2012.
The prices reading eased to the lowest level since April. Nine percent of respondents indicated higher prices while 21 percent reported them lower. During the last ten years, there has been an 85% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the core intermediate PPI.
The export order index fell to the lowest level since March while imports also eased significantly. The orders backlog series declined sharply to the lowest level since late in 2012.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes. A reading above 50 represents growth in factory sector activity. They can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 52.7 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 56.4 | 55.7 | 53.8 | 51.7 |
New Orders | 56.5 | 56.0 | 55.8 | 62.0 | 59.0 | 56.9 | 52.9 |
Production | 56.0 | 54.0 | 54.5 | 60.9 | 59.2 | 57.5 | 53.7 |
Employment | 52.7 | 55.5 | 51.7 | 56.3 | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.8 |
Supplier Deliveries | 48.9 | 48.8 | 50.7 | 54.3 | 55.0 | 51.9 | 50.0 |
Inventories | 49.5 | 53.0 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 48.2 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 44.0 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 59.5 | 55.6 | 53.8 | 53.2 |