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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 30, 2015
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 267,000 (-10.6% y/y) during the week ended July 25 from an unrevised 255,000 during the prior week. The latest figure was just above the lowest since November 1973. The four-week moving average fell to 274,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 272,000 initial claims. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance notched up to 2.262 million. The four-week moving average eased to 2.255 million.
The insured rate of unemployment backed up to 1.7%, but remained near the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.36%), Indiana (0.80%), Florida (0.90%), New Hampshire (0.90%), South Carolina (0.95%) and Tennessee (1.19%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.14%), California (2.29%), Alaska (2.34%), Pennsylvania (2.59%), Connecticut (2.72%) and New Jersey (3.01%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/25/15 | 07/18/15 | 07/11/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 267 | 255 | 281 | -10.6 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,262 | 2,216 | -10.9 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 (7/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |