New orders for durable goods surged 3.4% during June (-2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% May decline, earlier reported as -1.8%. The increase compared to expectations for a 3.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's gain was powered by a two-thirds jump in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts (1.9% y/y) which recaptured two months of sharp decline. Motor vehicle orders gained 0.2% (10.7% y/y) after a 0.3% shortfall. Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.8% (-4.5% y/y), only the second increase in the last nine months. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in real GDP.

Machinery orders improved 1.4% (-10.7% y/y) following two months of modest improvement. Orders for computers & electronic products edged 0.2% higher (3.7% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.8% increase. Electrical equipment orders increased 2.8% (-7.1% y/y) following deepened declines of 3.7% and 2.8% during the prior two months.

Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 9.4% (-4.5% y/y) with the rise in aircraft bookings. Orders excluding the aircraft sector gained 0.9% (-6.6% y/y), making up most of the declines during the prior two months.

Shipments of durable goods improved 0.1% (1.7% y/y) following two months of 0.3% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged minimally lower (-1.1% y/y), also following two months of 0.3% decline. Unfilled orders improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) in the wake of two months of decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector remained unchanged (0.7% y/y) after declines during five of the prior six months. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% decline and excluding transportation orders recovered 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a like decline.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.