The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during June registered its first positive reading since December. The latest figure increased to 0.08 from -0.08 in May, revised from -0.17. The three-month moving average of -0.01 was improved versus its -0.20 low in March. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Three of the four component series improved last month. The Production & Income reading of -0.01 versus -0.08 in May left the figure at the highest level in three months. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure gained to 0.12 from 0.06 leaving it at the highest point since February. The Sales, Orders & Inventories number rose to 0.03 from -0.01. The Personal Consumption & Housing series eased to -0.07, retracing most of its May rise. The Fed reported that 48 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 37 made negative contributions.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.