Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Robert Brusca June 19, 2015
Italy's current account surplus is higher in April, rising to 4.79 billion euros from 3.46 billion euros in March. The surplus was last higher in February, but this is a very high surplus reading for Italy with February's value the only one higher since Italy joined the EMU.
Sequential growth rates for exports are expanding, underpinning the improvement in the current account. Italy's imports are gathering strength as well.
The month's spurt in the surplus is on the back of suddenly stronger exports. But there is also sustained export strength. Exports are growing much faster than imports over 12 months. The chart shows that, the month's spurt in the surplus aside, surplus growth has been flattening out. This month's spurt in the surplus seems to be the result of a one-off spurt in exports, not part of a trend. Yet, exports are continuing to outpace imports but with both at extremely high short-term growth rates.
The sequential growth rates for exports and imports show that exports and imports are gaining momentum. This is a good sign for Italy's overall growth. Stronger exports will help to boost Italy's GDP and stronger imports are a sign of improved and sustained domestic demand.
Export and import details show consistently strong year-over-year growth rates for export categories in the last two months. But this strength is nascent. Imports are less robust across categories.
Italy's trade trends are very encouraging. It looks as though the weak euro is helping to spur exports. Import revival points to a recovery in domestic demand. Italy's trade flows are volatile, but the message right now is a wholly positive one.