Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller June 17, 2015
At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed indicated that improved job gains are supporting growth in consumer spending while business investment and net exports remained soft. Moderate growth in the economy was expected to continue. The Fed, however, lowered the "central tendency" for economic growth this year to 1.9% from 2.5%. Next year's projection was raised minimally to 2.55%.
The unemployment rate was expected to average 5.0% next year, the same as previously estimated.
Price inflation was viewed as running below the Fed's longer-term objective of 2%. The expectation for this year's CPI was unchanged at 1.35%. Next year's expectation was raised to 1.75% from 1.70%.
As a result of these views, the Fed elected to leave its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.
The press release for today's FOMC meeting can be found here.
The backdrop to today's meeting was stable M2 growth of 5.4% y/y and monetary base growth of -1.4% y/y. In addition, the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has risen 17% during the past year.
Haver's SURVEYS database contains the economic projections from the Federal Reserve Board.
Current | Last | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate, % (Target) | 0.00-0.25 | 0.00-0.25 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
Discount Rate, % | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 |