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Economy in Brief

FOMC Outlook Is for Moderate Growth and Low Inflation
by Tom Moeller  June 17, 2015

At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed indicated that improved job gains are supporting growth in consumer spending while business investment and net exports remained soft. Moderate growth in the economy was expected to continue. The Fed, however, lowered the "central tendency" for economic growth this year to 1.9% from 2.5%. Next year's projection was raised minimally to 2.55%.

The unemployment rate was expected to average 5.0% next year, the same as previously estimated.

Price inflation was viewed as running below the Fed's longer-term objective of 2%. The expectation for this year's CPI was unchanged at 1.35%. Next year's expectation was raised to 1.75% from 1.70%.

As a result of these views, the Fed elected to leave its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.

The press release for today's FOMC meeting can be found here.

The backdrop to today's meeting was stable M2 growth of 5.4% y/y and monetary base growth of -1.4% y/y. In addition, the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has risen 17% during the past year.

Haver's SURVEYS database contains the economic projections from the Federal Reserve Board.

Current Last 2014 2013 2012 2011
Federal Funds Rate, % (Target) 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.10
Discount Rate, % 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
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