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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone June 11, 2015
Total credit market borrowing was sharply reduced in Q1, according to the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts of the U.S., which were published today. Net paydowns by the federal government and the financial sector led to a reduction in the seasonally adjusted total to $1.13 trillion from $2.57 trillion in Q4. That latter figure was slightly revised from $2.47 trillion initially reported. As we will explain, the key here is "seasonally adjusted," since the federal government in fact did borrow funds in Q1.
The Q1 total amount is 6.4% of GDP, following 14.5% in Q4. This is the smallest ratio since Q2 2011. This ratio peaked at 37.3% in Q3 2007, just at the peak of the previous business cycle, and there were total net paydowns during 2009, in the depth of the recession.
Many press reports of these Financial Accounts highlight the household balance sheet data and the results they show for net worth. This result did continue to improve in Q1, reaching $84.9 billion. This was 639% of disposable income, the highest such ratio since Q3 2007, before the financial crisis and recession. However, these Financial Accounts cover the entire economy, and here in our commentary, we emphasize portions describing broad borrowing aggregates. These had undergone a historically unprecedented contraction during the last recession. Most of the time recently, total borrowing has ratcheted upward both in total and as a ratio to GDP. So Q1's reduction and low GDP ratio might be construed as a bad sign.
However, as we point out, the main source of the reduction among nonfinancial sectors is the federal government. It borrowed $66.8 billion during Q1, a period when its borrowing is generally much larger. Thus, after seasonal adjustment, this number translated into a net paydown of $13.4 billion, or $53.8 billion at an annual rate. Since the budget deficit has diminished, such a borrowing result, while startling, would logically follow. And it is probably not "a bad sign" about the economy's health, which is good enough to help the budget deficit shrink.
The other source of marked reduction in total borrowing came from two of the financial sectors, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and depository institutions. GSEs paid down $164 billion in their direct debt, and their mortgage pools shrank by $851 million. While their direct debt has often diminished in recent years, this is apparently the first cut in the amount of mortgage pool securities. Depository institutions, i.e., banks and similar institutions, paid down $136 billion in debt, unusual by historical standards, but not so unusual since the recession. Among other financial sectors, broker-dealers, holding companies and asset-backed securities issuers all paid down marginal amounts.
Among nonfinancial sectors, households borrowed $292 billion in Q1, less than 2014 amounts, but firmer than previous post-recession periods. Home mortgages returned to a modest net paydown after three quarters of net borrowing, while consumer credit ran upward at about its recent pace. Corporate business borrowed $542 billion, a similar magnitude to other recent periods, including, among other sources of funds, $450 billion in corporate bonds and $109 billion in depository institution loans.
The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's FFUNDS database. Associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); these are carried in Haver's USNA database.
Flow of Funds (SAAR, Bil.$) | Q1'15 | Q4'14 | Q3'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Credit Market Borrowing* | 1130 | 2569 | 2319 | 2151 | 1953 | 1592 | 1113 |
Federal Government | -54 | 700 | 913 | 667 | 759 | 1140 | 1068 |
Households | 292 | 373 | 390 | 386 | 203 | 200 | -32 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Business | 542 | 523 | 400 | 463 | 428 | 363 | 295 |
Financial Sectors | -341 | 597 | 466 | 272 | 214 | -419 | -341 |