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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remain Low
by Tom Moeller  June 11, 2015

Initial unemployment insurance claims of 279,000 (-12.3% y/y) during the week June 6 compared to 277,000 during the prior week, initially reported as 276,000. The four week moving average rose to 278,750, the highest level since early May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 277,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.265 million (-13.7% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average was stable at 2.227 million, the lowest level since November 2000.

The insured rate of unemployment inched back to 1.7% continuing the up/down pattern of the last several weeks.

By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Virginia (0.80%), Georgia (0.95%), Kansas (1.27%), Idaho (1.23%), Michigan (1.30%) and Texas (1.53%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Maryland (1.57%), Massachusetts (1.97%), California (2.11%), Nevada (2.15%), Pennsylvania (2.18%) and New Jersey (2.42%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/06/15 05/30/15 05/23/15 Y/Y % 2014 2013 2012
Initial Claims 279 277 284 -12.3 309 343 374
Continuing Claims -- 2,265 2,204 -13.7 2,599 2,978 3,319
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.7 1.6 2.0
2.0 2.3 2.6
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