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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 4, 2015
Nonfarm productivity fell at a 3.1% annual rate during Q1 2015, revised from the initial report of a 1.9% fall. The decline followed a 2.1% retreat during the prior quarter. Harsh winter weather and the strike at West coast ports constrained real output. It fell at a 1.6% rate (+3.2% y/y), revised from 0.2%, after rising 2.6% in Q4. Hours worked gained a little-revised 1.6% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.9% rise. Compensation per hour increased at a 3.3% rate (2.1% y/y), revised from 3.1%, after a 3.4% Q4 rise, which also was revised up. When adjusted for lower prices compensation improved at a 6.5% rate (2.2% y/y), the largest increase since Q4 2012. The decline in productivity caused unit labor costs to rise at an upwardly revised 6.7% rate (1.8% y/y), the firmest increase in a year. A 2.9% decline in productivity was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Unit labor costs were expected to rise at a 5.9% rate.
Manufacturing sector worker productivity declined at a little-revised 1.0% rate last quarter (+1.5% y/y) following no change in Q4, also little changed. The 1.1% decline in output was little revised (+3.8% y/y), following a 4.4% gain. Hours worked edged 0.1% lower (+2.3% y/y) following a 4.4% Q4 increase. Worker compensation per hour rose an upwardly revised 2.4% (1.7% y/y). Adjusted for price deflation, compensation gained 5.5% (1.8% y/y), about the same as in Q4. Unit labor costs increased 3.4% (0.2% y/y), revised from 2.7%, following a 4.2% gain.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is the AS1REPNA database.
Productivity & Costs (SAAR,%) | Q1'15 | Q4'14 | Q3'14 | Q1 Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | -3.1 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Compensation per Hour | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
Unit Labor Costs | 6.7 | 5.6 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | -1.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Compensation per Hour | 2.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Unit Labor Costs | 3.4 | 4.2 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 0.8 |