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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
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Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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by Tom Moeller May 26, 2015
New orders for durable goods dipped 0.5% during April following a revised 5.1% March jump, earlier reported as 4.0%. A 2.5% decline (-5.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders led the total lower as it reflected a 6.1% drop in aircraft & parts bookings. Defense aircraft orders fell 12.8% (-4.5% y/y) after more than doubling in March. Nondefense aircraft orders declined 4.0% (+3.3% y/y) following a 40.7% surge. Motor vehicle & parts orders were off 0.3% (+10.9% y/y). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector improved 0.5% (-0.9% y/y), roughly as they did the prior month. Expectations were for a 0.6% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders jumped 3.1% (-5.5% y/y) following two months of decline. Orders for both fabricated & primary metals also recovered strongly following several months of shortfall. These gains were offset, however, by a 1.5% decline (-3.0% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment & appliances. Orders for computers & electronic products also fell 3.6% (+3.5% y/y) after a 7.7% jump.
Nondefense capital goods orders improved 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised 7.2% jump. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 1.0% (-1.4% y/y) after a 1.5% rise.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.1% higher (0.6% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement. Unfilled orders were unchanged (+7.1% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+3.4% y/y), down for the third straight month. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.2% (5.0% y/y) following no change, and excluding transportation they rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) for a second straight month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, %) | -0.5 | 5.1 | -3.5 | -2.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
Transportation | -2.5 | 15.2 | -7.3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 16.6 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.3 | 7.2 | -6.0 | -0.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 10.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.0 | 1.5 | -5.1 | -1.4 | 6.3 | -1.0 | 7.6 |
Shipments | -0.1 | 1.5 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.3 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 |